UFC Sao Paolo Almeida vs. Lewis: Jailton bait

Sao Paolo, Brazil is the host city for this week’s UFC Fight Night event. This card offers 13 bouts each of which feature a native Brazilian athlete competing against opponents shipping into Sao Paolo from around the world.

It’s been since 2019 that the UFC has visited Sao Paolo so viewers should be prepared to witness great bouts and as importantly some of the most passionate, voracious fight fans in the world. They’ll sneer, jeer and throw beer at the athletes competing against the Brazilian local’s win lose or draw.

The preliminary card starts at 3pm PT with the main card dropping at 6pm PT.

In UFC 294 two weeks ago, Mike Breeden +250 withstood a battering for two rounds at the hands of debuting Indian fighter Ansul Jubli, before he ‘let the dog out’ and knocked out the gassed Jubli in round 3.

Digital results to date: 18-18 + .15u

Breeden got us back into the black but we need to grind positive profit as there remain but six fight cards remaining in 2023.

Jailton Almeida -450 vs. Derrick Lewis +390 Heavyweight (265lbs) Main event

Almeida was originally scheduled for a sterner test against Curtis Blaydes before Blaydes fell out and was replaced by the singularly dimensioned Lewis.

Lewis saved his UFC career in his last outing KO’ing Brazilian athlete Rogerio de Lima. With Lewis, it’s all about the power as he has profuse punching and kicking power despite the fact that he tips the scales at the 266 weight limit each time he weighs in.

Lewis though a purple belt in BJJ has little to no wrestling chops, he’s fundamentally flawed on the ground especially from the bottom position. When he can compete standing and especially early in fights, he’s extremely athletic, explosive and dangerous.

In Brazilian Almeida we have an athlete who has competed at 205lbs. and was dominant when competing there.

At heavyweight, Almeida hits the scales about 235lbs. and while he is used to competing against the larger lumbering heavyweights in the division Saturday, he’ll face a man at least 35 pounds heavier than he who sports deep UFC experience, profuse power and a willingness to engage.

In his last several bouts Almeida’s mission to ground the opposing athlete has been pronounced as he shoots from his corner like a linebacker blitzing.

The intrigue in this bout will be to determine how much time it takes Almeida to ground the bloated ‘Black Beast’ who knows exactly what is coming then find a way to reign damage from the top and more than likely submit him.

The total in this bout is 1.5 Under -300 which is logical for Almeida works quickly and Lewis only path to success revolves around his singular path of success which is an early upper cut or flying knee KO.

Pass for now

Gabriel Bonfim -575 vs. Nicholas Dalby +460 Welterweight (170lbs.) co main event

These two Brazilian Bonfim brothers are absolute killers.

In this co main event we’ll see 15-0 Gabe, the younger brother and the Bonfim with more championship potential in my judgement than his older brother Ismail who is also on this main card but is also quite dangerous.

Bonfim has finished every opponent he has faced and in the UFC he’s 2-0 after sawing through two competent but journeymen opponents.

In this bout Bonfim steps up in class though the market does not appear to believe such.

In Nicholas Dalby we get a throwback to Ragnar Lodbrok for Dalby, a Dane is as pure a throwback to pure Viking warrior as is possible.

In this his second stint in the UFC Dalby has earned a 5-1 mark and he’s done it by being aggressive and making the fight though Dalby’s fight all go to decision which is foundational to my handicap on this bout.

Dalby is thirty-eight, twelve years older than Bonfim. He’s also 2” shorter than the Brazilian though Dalby does own a 2” reach advantage.

Dalby’s been in with the more pedigreed UFC talent and has fared well. He’s armed with belts In Karate and BJJ and enters this fight understanding exactly where a victory here puts him.

Once this fight begins our Viking friend will need to weather a furious onslaught from young Bonfim who will come at him with everything he has for Bonfim has seen the 3rd round only once since 2018.

It’s Dalby’s durability, experience and the level of competition faced that makes me feel that the price on the favorite is way too expensive. That said, I’ll lay off the side and focus on the total where I believe the real value lies.

Total in this fight: 1.5 Under -145

Dalby must prepare for an absolute onslaught early and I believe he weathers it and forces Bonfim to have to earn his victory Saturday.

Fight starts Rd 2 -130

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning this week for UFC Sao Paolo. Get it on any podcast platform.

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming