UFC 331 will be held in the City of Angels, Los Angeles, CA this Saturday with early preliminary action kicking off at 2pm PS, prelims start at 4pm PST and finally the main card drops at 6pm PST.
Thirteen bouts are currently scheduled for this fight card with five of those taking place where finishes are most common, at the 170lb. and above weight classes.
Nine athletes ship into the states to compete against domestic athletes and we have five local SoCal fighters representing on the card with one ship in from Las Vegas who will also realize a relative home advantage.
Six of the thirteen fights on this slate opened -250 or greater so once again, the focus is on being selective and trying to refine the scope of target to athletes who are in advantageous positions based on their physical size, fight weaponry and/or level of competition faced.
Last week Curtis Blaydes +175 proved he was a legitimate top five athlete in the heavyweight division when he decisioned up and coming singularly dimensioned slugger Waldo Cortez-Acosta.
Meanwhile favorites in the UFC are 267-105-10 or 70%. We’re bucking that heavy favorite trend effectively.
Let’s Fight!
Champion Joshua Van -130 vs. Alexandre Pantoja +110 Flyweight (125lbs.) Title
Current Flyweight champion Joshua Van is a natural fighter.
He’s not decorated with Judo, BJJ or wrestling accolades/belts but what the twenty-four year old champion has shown is the ability to do is to show up, use his feet, throw hands, and finish flyweights.
After Van captured the title last December in a fight where Pantoja was injured, he took advantage of Pantoja’s recovery time to accept a fight against up and coming Japanese fighter Tatsuo Taira.
Van won that fight impressively, but it’s foundational to recognize that Taira was able to take Van to the canvas on more than one occasion. The issue for this handicapper is that once on the mat Taira was unable to keep Van there which was the difference in the outcome.
Should Pantoja get Van to the mat, make little mistake that Van will struggle MIGHTILY to regain his standing position for the advanced grappling game possessed by Pantoja is as complete as is in the whole of the UFC let alone the flyweight division.
Van is now under four years into the UFC and stands 9-1, his sole loss a KO at the hands of Charles Johnson. He steps up in class of opponent for this tussle against the grizzled veteran Pantoja.
Van totes momentum into this fight with the understanding that he found success in the octagon with Pantoja prior, when his confidence and momentum were nowhere near the level they are today.
Former flyweight champion Pantoja is a Brazilian mixed martial artist who had to scratch, scrape, and claw his way to the flyweight title before losing it in freakish fashion last December.
Since 2020, the relatively undersized Pantoja has ‘cleaned out’ all viable threats to his title, albeit in a division that has little viewer or popular appeal.
Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renown MMA gym featuring an abundance skilled fighters with diverse body types and fight weaponry. Competing at ATT allows Pantoja to refine his already elite weaponry upon every type of adversary his size and larger.
Pantoja’s dominance in the division reflects the high energy competition he faces daily at ATT as opposed to the general lack of skilled fighters today competing at 125lbs.
Pantoja, a black belt in BJJ is a brilliant grappler who holds striking aptitude, deft defensive skills and experience that has been developed against the ultimate threats in the division over the course of a decade plus.
Now add to his weaponry a finite mental focus to earn his title back, one he lost via injury and not ability and we have the makings for a great rematch!
Pantoja despite his thirty-six years is lightning quick, strong, and athletic for his age but of all his physical attributes the most apparent trait in his fights is not his physicality, rather it is his mentality, his maturity, and his ability to remain clam in the eye of the firefight.
Pantoja’s mental toughness, his fight IQ, and his zeal to recapture this title after struggling for so many years to earn it comprise the fabric of the Pantoja fight arsenal. Never mind his elite world class BJJ, wrestling and Muay Thai skills.
Once this fight begins it will be interesting to determine how long it takes Pantoja to ground Van then force the striking based fighter into the deep waters he has never been taken to.
I find it unlikely that Pantoja will try to play with his food and give the young lion a chance for a ‘Sunday shot,’ by standing and banging any longer than is necessary rather this will be an ‘all business’ Pantoja attempting to award this talented young fighter from Myanmar his PhD. In MMA.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -180
This total opened 2.5 and there are still some 3.5’s available. Over 3.5 is a sound consideration especially since the market is now converting to 4.5 -180 as a total.
Arman Tsarukyan -320 vs. Mauricio Ruffy +265 Lightweight (155lbs.)
Digital readers hold a Su Mudaerji/Arman Tsarukyan parlay ticket -115 for 2.3u.
This parlay was released some weeks ago before the Su Mudaerji vs. Alex Perez bout which Su -185 won (price then on Tsarukyan was-340).
That wager allows us to take the most forceful, wrestling based Russian vice grip in the division at a near pick-em price.
Tsarukyan’s the top lightweight on the roster but his constant idiotic displays have put him squarely in the UFC doghouse.
In this fight Tsarukyan if he is able to control his emotions and actually gets to the octagon will blitz Ruffy, take him down then eventually submit him.
That stated, Ruffy has been training with Alexander Volkanovski’ and while one can’t learn wrestling prowess in a couple years or less, the fact is that Ruffy’s size, length, speed, precision, and dynamic power together are capable to shutting Tsarukyan’s lights out should he place a spinning heal onto the wrestler’s chin as he forces his way into the pocket to clasp.
Ruffy absolutely needs space for success in this fight and Tsarukyan absolutely must not allow him to have any.
Mudaerji/Tsarukyan -115 2.3u
Iwo Baraniewski -235 vs. Alonso Menefield +195 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.)
Menefield is a chiseled, veteran striker with profuse power and a willingness to stand flat footed and trade.
He’s finished fourteen of his eighteen adversaries via finish (10 KO’s) and arrives to this fight knowing that this fight will be waged in the center of the cage and that in under ten minutes one man will be left quivering on the canvas.
Poland’s Iwo Baraniewski is a decorated world class Judo practitioner who holds such dynamic power in his hands that to date in the UFC he has been unable to display the depth and completeness of his Judo arsenal because he pulverizes opponents with power shots before he even gets to unleash his foundation, Judo.
This fight will open in a ‘Rock-em Sock-em Robots’ style of toe to toe throwdown.
Speed and quickness go to Menefield here and if he can land first he has the chance to stun the Polish fighter and force him to transition to that Judo.
However, should Menefield, who has found his way into firefights prior, not be able to pulverize the Polish power puncher early then he will be at great physical risk for eventually this hammer Baraniewski will find Menefield and when he does this fight will be over.
Baraniewski is a legitimate well rounded fighter that no one in the division wants to face.
I recommend Baraniewski via KO/Sub/DQ which will be released later in the week (DraftKings).
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds. Under -270
Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops, ‘Bout Business is showing 5% ROI for the year and has been on a torrid pace lately. Catch the podcast across all pod platforms or at GambLou.com
Thank you for reading and enjoy the bouts!