Favorites roared back to 65% on the year after n 11-2 result in last week’s UFC LV89.
My releases of Justin Tafa +150 and Rose Namajunas in the second leg of a two-fighter parlay split resulting in a 1-1 + .57 profit for the week. That makes digital profitability in 2024 6-5 +3.52u which displays an average win of +143.
Realizing profitability when committed to remaining on the underdog side of UFC results can be challenging which is why I remain ultra-selective with my releases on this platform. It takes little to ‘pick them all’ and the result of that erodes win percentages, gross profit and return on investment which are my sole concerns for this column and why I do not undertake that pursuit.
Into this UFC FN Atlantic City, we march where fighters compete in the larger thirty-foot octagon. Featured on this card are nine area athletes looking to harness the momentum of the home crowd to earn victory and propel their careers.
Erin Blanchfield -185 vs. Manon Fiorot +155 women’s flyweight (125lbs.) main event
We last witnessed third ranked Swedish athlete Manon Fiorot defeat debuting flyweight and former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas last September.
In that three-round affair, Fiorot displayed extreme durability coupled with aggressive power striking/kicking in earning a razor close nod.
The striking Swede realizes a +2.7 significant strikes landed per round as well exhibits 91% take down defense thus far in her career. While she does remain singularly centered upon slugging her durability, toughness and UFC experience make her a justified top five fighter in the division.
In second ranked Blanchfield we have an athlete that is ten years younger than Fiorot which the numbers say provides a 67% advantage historically.
Besides her youth Blanchfield is decorated with a black belt in BJJ and she has ascended the ranks of the division by dominating each challenge she has faced.
Blanchfield steps up in class of opponent for this fight certainly but her well rounded fight arsenal, youth, and the fact that she is competing in her own back yard against a European athlete that is travelling in all spell advantage for the twenty-four-year-old Jersy product.
This fight opened a dead pick-em but by Tuesday of fight week (today) Blanchfield’s been steamed to the current -198 based on the advantages spelled out above.
Though Fiorot has faced a more accomplished level of UFC opponent, the fact remains that this is her first headline event as well five round fight. In her last bout against Namajunas Fiorot slowed substantially in the third round against Namajunas who was making her debut in the division.
In Blanchfield she will face the more versed mixed martial arts athlete that is not only ten plus years younger but one that has already experienced the distractions and pressure of headlining a UFC card.
Though early in the week I believe it is too late to jump on the Blanchfield train now even though I handicap her to be fairly priced. Instead, the advantages lie in the total for this bout which opened 4.5 pick-em and now stand 4.5 Over -135.
This fight will be keenly contested. I handicap Blanchfield’s youth and well-rounded pedigree as well the fact that she is the more conditioned fighter fighting in front of a home crowd to in unison create enough advantage here for her to slay this Swedish threat though I judge that it takes her all five rounds.
Blanchfield/Fiorot Over -135
1.0u to earn .74u
Vicente Luque -120 vs. Joaquin Buckley +100 Welterweight (170lbs.) co main event
Buckley is an unranked mixed martial artist who has a modest wrestling background but is a profusely powerful puncher. He is physically compact and extremely explosive relying on bludgeoning hooks, crosses, and elbows to render opponents’ unconscious.
17-6 professionally and 7-4 in the UFC, Buckley lands slightly more significant strikes per round than he absorbs, sports average take down defense which he should not have to employ in this predicted standup war and he averages 1.51 takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight time which he will not undertake unless he gets stung.
He unrelentingly presses forward and wastes little time attempting to engage opponents in order to compete in a good old fashioned ‘turn your lights out’ throwdown.
In Brazilian and eleventh ranked Vicente Luque we have another relentless warrior raised in the New Jersey area, so he will have family in attendance and will be backed by the crowd.
Decorated with black belts in Luta Livre Esportiva and BJJ, Luque is the more well-rounded mixed martial artist of these two. He hurls a high rate of power punches in all his battles while being more than willing to receive a shot on the schnoz in order to deliver one.
Once the bell rings for this confrontation fans will be treated to a couple of alpha males looking to immediately ring the other up to earn an impressive and quick victory.
I expect there will be little feeling out in this fight by Buckley who will want to stand firm and hurl.
Luque must, in my judgment use tactic in this fight and employ a diversity of attack to sap the slugger from St. Louis of his explosiveness. Patience will be Luque’s ally as he may extol his best damage after his barrel bodied aggressor begins to swell up and slow down. The question is, can he remain focused on utilizing patience?
This issue with planned tactic for either of these men is that they rarely employ it choosing instead to engage in war and finish their opponent.
In this bout, the experienced laden Luque who has battled the more accomplished level of opponent must remain premeditated and on plan to manage this fight past the first five minutes of competition.
Once into the second round, provided this fight arrives there, Luque may be the faster more damaging power puncher of the two.
Luque opened as a -160 favorite in this fight and early money on Buckley has compressed the price down to the current -110.
Buckley’s lure is based on his explosiveness, the belief that Luque is older than he is as well UFC investors are aware that Luque’s experience also translates into attrition for he has been in several debilitating duels.
Total in this fight is lined 2.5Rds Under -165 after opening Under -135.
Few, including myself, expect this bout to go to a decision.
Lupita Godinez-200 vs. Virna Jandiroba +170 women’s strawweight (115lbs.)
Mexican ‘Loopy’ Godinez, tenth ranked in the division displays all the pride, durability, and determination of the Mexican fighter. Her MMA game has drastically improved since she began training with flyweight champion Alexa Grasso at Lobo gym in Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
A purple belt in BJJ the undersized Godinez displays complete willingness to engage in the stand-up wars Mexican boxers are renown. She is also apt at the takedown and has been effective stopping take down advances from opponents though in this fight that ability will surely be tested.
Brazilian Virna Jandiroba is decorated with a Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a green/white prajied in Muay Thai.
Seventh ranked Jandiroba will be the taller, larger female in the cage Saturday. She has competed against a level of competition more accomplished than has her opponent.
In this battle of Mexico vs. Brazil we will witness a couple of females fighting to break into the elite of the division. Lined 2.5 rounds with the over -270 this fight has all the makings of being a razor close decision.
At the end of the day Jandiroba’s size, her level of competition faced, and her ground abilities all signify to me the verification that she is the athlete with the more complete skills. ‘Though an underdog I handicap Jandiroba to be the sleeper of this fight card.
Jandiroba +170 .60u to earn 1.02u
Jandiroba via decision price is not yet available but it will be a strong consideration.
The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday around Noon PT. Look for all my final releases at WWW.GambLou.com.
Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading.
GambLou
Profitable Sports Gaming