UFC 299 was an epic fight card where favorites ran 3-2 on the pay per view main card. Overall, on the slate, chalk realized a 9-5 result making the 2024 total for favorites in the UFC 64-30-3 or 66%.
This week the organization returns to Las Vegas for a fight card which will take place at the UFC APEX where again, the smaller twenty-five-foot cage is used and very few fans are able to attend.
Overwhelmingly the athletes express a desire to compete in front of packed arenas where they can feed off the ferocity of the attendees despite the organization’s zeal to continue to hold events at its own forum.
Last week I hit both underdogs released. Curtis Blaydes was released at a price of -110 but ended up closing a slight underdog, knocked out Jailton Almeida in the second round of their heavyweight bout.
Dustin Poirier +185 was fully disrespected by the betting public in his bout against Benoit Saint Denis. He displayed how critical it is to recognize a professional fighter’s entire body of work as opposed to being blinded by recency and the lack of formidable, elite competition.
Saint Denis was not prepared mentally or physically to step up so aggressively in level of competition this early in his promising career.
Poirier awarded Saint Denis his PhD. In MMA but look for Saint Denis to rebound after being knocked out. There is a learning curve in world class mixed martial arts!
Those two underdog releases put my UFC profitability for this column in 2024 to 5-4 +3.05u.
Now let us investigate a fight card that offers thirteen bouts featuring athletes less recognized by most fans than last week’s UFC 299.
This production begins at 1pm PT with preliminary action followed by the main card which drops at 4pm PT.
Tai Tuivasa -115 vs. Marcin Tybura +105 Heavyweight (265lbs.) main event
Number ten ranked Polish fighter Tybura 24-8, is a black belt in BJJ. Tybura’s grappling is the foundation for his fighting. His striking is not overly effective as he carries little speed, precision, or power in his hands though he does offer decent kicking power from distance despite telegraphing his intentions.
When matched against top seven heavyweight adversaries, Tybura’s lack of fluid footwork and precision striking leaves him exposed to being blasted when standing.
The singularly dimensioned Pole, as witnessed in his last bout, a first round KO loss against number one ranked Tom Aspinal, struggles against elite, well rounded heavyweight competition.
In Tai Tuivasa we have an athlete that enters the cage eight years younger than Tybura which is a great advantage.
The fun loving Australian, now training in California at AKA is a brawling Muay Thai based striker who carries an abundance of power in his hands and can end any fight with one pop to an opponent’s chops.
Tuivasa also lacks fluidity of movement and precision striking preferring instead to walk opponents down and engage in leveraged toe-to-toe brawls staged from the center of the cage.
Once the bell to this bout chimes, I look for Tuivasa to be on the hunt for hooks, crosses, knees, and uppercuts. Tybura will attempt to engage on the feet only long enough to clasp onto the Aussie, force him against the fence then try to drag the massive mauler onto the mat then attempt to gain top position where he can reign his own form of damage.
Where this bout takes place will go a long way in determining its outcome for Tuivasa is as ill prepared to grapple/roll as Tybura is to engage in an all-out stand-up fracas.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -180
Mike Davis -300 vs. Natan Levy +245 Lightweight (155lbs.)
Levy trains at Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas. He is only three fights into his UFC career realizing a 2-1 record.
Decorated with a third dan black belt in Uechi-Ryū Karate, a black belt in Kyokushin Karate, a black belt in Kung Fu and a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Levy’s resume appears impressive, yet he has shown little ability to apply effective striking in his bouts.
Levy’s grappling/wrestling is much more refined than his striking despite his Karate accolades. Levy needs a victory over a legitimate UFC caliber opponent as the level of his previous UFC competition leaves much to be desired.
Natan steps up in class substantially to take on his opponent Mike Davis.
Davis, 10-2 professionally trains in Florida’s famous ATT. There he is able to train with an array of highly skilled professionals who offer a great diversity of specialized MMA skills.
Davis’s UFC record is 3-1 but he has faced a more stringent level of competition than Levy. His takedown defense, movement and cardio will also be differentiating factors in a fight that I expect could go all fifteen minutes.
After a second-round submission loss to Gilbert Burns in his debut Davis has rattled off three straight victories against very worthy UFC competition.
In this fight he will be challenged by the pressing grappling of Levy, but it is my judgement that Davis’s footwork and effective power striking makes him a legitimate favorite in this confrontation.
While both men have grappling backgrounds, I look for this bout to take place standing and it is on the feet that Davis’s youth, height and reach advantages coupled with his superior athleticism will provide him great advantage.
I normally avoid high priced favorites but in this fight Davis’s advantages are too glaring to overlook. Levy for his part is stepping up in class exponentially.
Rather than risk such a high-priced favorite straight up, I will choose instead to parlay Mike Davis with Rose Namajunas -168 who competes in the main event of UFC Las Vegas 89 next week at the APEX center against Brazil’s Amanda Ribas.
Namajunas, a former strawweight champion is making her second bout at flyweight after an ultra-close decision loss to top three ranked Marion Fiorot in her last outing.
Namajunas trains in Denver at altitude, has championship pedigree and is a fine accompaniment to Mike Davis.
This parlay application allows me to hold substantial price advantage on Namajunas next week provided Davis earns victory as a -310 favorite this Saturday.
Davis -310 to Namajunas -175 1u pays 1.07
Total in Davis vs. Levy 2.5Rds. -210 Over
Jake Filho -185 vs. Ode Osbourne +160 Flyweight (125lbs.)
The smaller twenty-five-foot octagon used in APEX bouts will have negligible effect on these two tiny athletes who enter the cage with differing specialties.
Osbourne, 12-6 is a southpaw striker who will sport a five-inch reach advantage in this fight. He is 4-4 in the UFC displaying skilled striking however his inability to fend off aggressive, forward pressing grappling/wrestling based athletes is extremely worrisome as he struggles mightily if/when grounded.
Osbourne must sell his soul to ensure this fight remains standing and if he can do so, he is in position to get his hand raised.
In Brazilian Filho we have a tough, cagey BJJ artist who is 15-3 professionally and 1-1 in UFC competition.
Despite Filho giving away UFC experience to Osbourne, his dynamic viper-like grappling enables him to engulf opponents then drag them to the dirt for a drubbing. Grappling defines his success.
In a ‘styles make fights’ matchup it is Osbourne who needs to remain standing in order to find success while Filho must find a way to clasp onto the longer striker, ground him, wrap him up, then choke the life out of him.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -210
Props are not yet released for this card, but I expect Filho to submit Osbourne sometime after a competitive first round.
The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast is white hot after realizing huge returns in last week’s UFC 299, get all my releases for this week’s UFC LV 88 at GambLou.com.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the aggression!