Shanghai, China is the host city for this week’s UFC event.
Saturday’s fight slate is eleven fights deep with combatants from China, Japan and Indonesia populating much of the fight card hosting athletes from across the globe travelling in to compete against them.
There are few age variance fights on this slate as well there are but two fights with large men competing so we may see more athleticism, tactic and decision results as opposed to the dynamic amount of finishes we experienced last week.
This fight card begins at Midnight Saturday PST with the main card dropping at 3AM PST and once again we’ll be challenged to find some actionable betting opportunities as five of the scheduled twelve bouts (that I track) are lined with a favorite at least -250. Selectivity rules again regarding this fight card.
Favorites this year in the UFC are 70.3%.
Last week we dished a live dog in MarQuel Mederos who we had straight +225 for a half unit then we also had 1.5u on MarQuel +3.5pts +100. Mederos KO’d a tough willing Welsh wrecking ball in Mason Jones. Mederos closed -300 so it pays to be patient when it comes to investing in underdogs in the UFC!
Umar Nurmagomedov -485 vs. Song Yadong +435 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event
Yadong is a Chinese fighter training in northern California at Team Alpha Male under the tutelage of Uriah Faber.
Yadong has tremendous strength, cardio, fortitude to compliment his superior boxing/muay Thai striking. Yadong’s wrestling, once elementary has evolved into an asset for him albeit one he cannot really rely on to win fights, rather he utilizes wrestling take down defense to ensure his competition has to compete against him standing.
Yadong’s well more comfortable on the feet than rolling on the mat but in this fight, make no mistake about the fact that Yadong will be taken down.
How Song manages this fight once his opponent presses forward to engage in his vice grip wrestling then grounds him will be the foundational aspect to this bout.
If Yadong can force Umar to compete with him standing, then this fight becomes more winnable for the local Chinese fighter training now in Cali. Yadong has earned a positive significant strike differential of .53 SS/M while his take down defense is a stout 73%.
Umar Nurmagomedov is simply a 135lb. version of Islam Makhachev. Nurmagomedov, International Master of Sports in Combat Sambo is the premier talent in the division.
Umar’s strike defense is as effective as there is in the whole of the organization as he sports a positive 2.0 SS/M advantage while his stellar defense allows a paltry 1.86 SS/M to be landed on him.
Umar’s striking has evolved into a legitimate weapon despite the fact that he uses that mode of fighting only long enough to engulf his opponent, drag them to the canvas then begin to envelope them in his smothering Sambo/wrestling/grappling.
Once this fight begins we can look for Song to try to start his striking quickly and involve the fans, but he must do so cautiously for any indication of over aggression or forward thrust sets him up for the takedown which is foundational to the Nurmagomedov plan.
Yadong will want to use his jab to initiate conflict, but he must also remain fleet afoot and utilize a wide stance in order to be able to fend off the takedown advances that Umar is certain to impose upon him.
The Nurmagomedov camp for their part feels that he can win this fight anywhere it goes and I believe that to be correct. Umar’s striking is a tool used simply to set up his dynamic take down ability (4.03 take downs executed per fifteen minutes of fight time).
Once Nurmagomedov can transition opponents from feet to floor his single point of focus is to squeeze the breath from the opponent. Nurmagomedov has finished three of his last six adversaries and in this fight, against the organizations sixth ranked bantamweight he will look to try to finish Yadong in any manner possible.
Larger cage, Chinese home crowd backing Yadong and Yadong arriving to this battle off a finish win against Deiveson Figueiredo together make me feel that this fight will be competitive as long as Yadong keeps it standing.
Total in this fight is lined 4.5Rds Over -230
Bantamweight fights in the UFC go to decision 55% of the time so I lean that this fight does in fact go to the judges.
Su Mudaerji -215 vs. Alex Perez +190 Flyweight (125lbs.)
Rematch!
In May of this year these two tussled in Macao and the result was a ‘no contest’ based on a south of the border teep-kick from Su to Perez.
Perez, thirty-four, closed a -125 favorite in that fight based on his level of competition faced and his depth of UFC experience.
Perez during the fight experienced difficulty entering the pocket on Su who is three inches taller and holds a substantial seven inch reach advantage.
Su, thirty, is primarily a striker so those height and reach numbers clearly pronounce him as a difficult chore for the shorter Perez and we saw that in the first fight.
In this bout, Perez is going to need to solve the distance problem he faces in this matchup which is the same distance issue he experienced just three months ago.
Su, trains at Uriah Faber’s Team Alpha Male, a renown gym that specializes in the wrestling base. Wrestling base is mandatory for Su for his movement, striking, Muay Thai and athleticism are all intertwined in his fluidity of striking but his take down defense especially against experienced well rounded grappling based athletes needs improvement.
For Perez, he must turn up the intensity of this fight from the opening bell and pressure Su, while forcing him into moving backwards for if Perez can successfully forge forward and pressure Su, he will have a more efficient time clasping onto the Tibetan fighter with the aspiration of dragging him to the floor for a flogging.
Su got Perez in Macao in May and now must face another Su home crowd for this fight which translates to no excuse for Perez for he is well aware that any close decision could well be flavored by a little Chinese home cooking.
Perez MUST make this fight like his pants are on fire and sell his soul to engage in his wrestling against Su.
Su meanwhile will need to utilize his athleticism in that huge thirty foot cage and mandate that this fight takes place standing. If he does that then it is my judgement that Su will be difficult to beat in this rematch.
Su Mudaerji -215
and I’ll pair him in a parlay into an upcoming fight where Armen Tsarukyan (currently priced -365) faces Brazilian Mauricio Ruffy on a fight card September 19th. This parlay is available at DraftKings.
Tsarukyan -115 becomes the net price point for digital readers should Su realize success in the first leg!
Parlay outlay: 1.15u
Total in this fight stands 2.5 Rds. Under