This week’s event is called UFC 319, and it will be one of five final PPV events for the UFC as in 2026 the platform for UFC events will be Paramount and CBS in essence killing the antiquated PPV model for a much more lucrative opportunity. There is much to comment upon here but that will be saved for another time.
Saturday UFC fight fans will witness a terrifically matched main event of Middleweight stalwarts where champion Dricus Du Plessis a South African faces number three ranked Khamzat Chimaev, a Russian grappler who many regard as the most dangerous athlete on the roster.
The fight card kicks off with early preliminary action at 3pm PT, regular prelims start at 5pm PT and the PPV portion of the card drops at 7pm PT.
There are currently thirteen scheduled bouts for this fight slate. Five of those bouts are comprised of men weighing 170lbs. or more so focus on those fights for the higher probability of finishing potential.
There are five fights where the youth advantage is at least six years or greater and two fights between athletes who compete against one another and are at least thirty-seven years old. The geriatric bouts!
Last week my suggested parlay position lost bringing results for this column to 16-18 -.47u for the year.
Let’s get back into the black this week!
Khamzat Chimaev -230 vs. Dricus Du Plessis +195 Champion Middleweight (185lbs.) title
Chimaev is a Russian demolition man decorated with a brown belt in BJJ and considerable wrestling prowess. He fights/trains between Sweden and the UAE. Chimaev hit the UFC like a lightning bolt a few years back, winning fights in devastating fashion between two weight classes, welterweight, and middleweight.
He’s aggressive and overwhelming early in fights and while he has shown immense potential thus far in his UFC career, his recent past has been marred by health issues, inactivity and a lack of legitimate competition in the middleweight division outside of his last victory, a walloping of Robert Whittaker who had been a perennial top five athlete in the division for a decade as well a former champion of the division.
Chimaev’s other two middleweight wins were against Kevin Holland a fighter made for Chimaev, then former middleweight champion Kamaru Usman a welterweight himself who moved up to fight Chimaev and took the Russian to an ultra-close majority decision despite taking the bout on very short notice and travelling around the globe to vie against the young Russian. Tlast October’s defeat of former champion Whittaker.
Chimaev, in previous fights, has shown himself to be complete monster in the first two rounds before he begins to wear signs of fatigue. I’m certain he’s addressed the matter but suffice it to say that this champion is a legit hulking middleweight and he will not tire. Those glimpses of fatigue from Chimaev against undersized foes like Gil Burns and Usman is a contributing factor to how I handicap this battle..
Chimaev faces elite middleweight competition in this fight and a man with drive perseverance and pride. Without question Champion Dricus Du Plessis is a much more dangerous opponent to Chimaev than anyone Chimaev has competed against in battle and in practice.
South African Du Plessis, a second-degree black belt in kickboxing, he has an unconventional, awkward, uneven approach to his fighting. He is a massive sized man, he is dynamically strong, has great cardio and is as tough and durable as any fighter on the roster.
What Du Plessis is not is nimble footed, slick, fast, or precise with his striking which favors him in this fight for he’ll not need to call upon any of those skills to best Chimaev as Du Plessis will attack the bully and try to steal his will with aggressive blunt force forward pressure.
Du Plessis lives by the adage that ‘every action has an equal and opposite reaction’ so the Du Plessis plan in any fight but most especially in this one, will be to take the fight directly to Chimaev and execute a pulverization of said adversary until he succumbs.
This is a fight that one must watch from the beginning for Chimaev will look to dominate Du Plessis early with his forceful, smothering, grappling acumen and try to overwhelm him, in essence he’ll attempt to drown the champion with the force of his grappling/wrestling pressure.
For Du Plessis, he has little intention of evading and buying time to take Chimaev deep into this fight rather he wants to overwhelm Chimaev in his own strategy, by attacking him from the opening bell.
Yes, I believe Du Plessis will look to bully the bully for this approach has shown promise in the past against the lesser experienced Chimaev especially after the first five/ten minutes of fighting when fatigue begins to creep in and is able “to make cowards of us all.”
Chimaev has had but one fight since October of 2023 and while he has likely improved his weaponry specifically his cardio capability in the months leading up to this fight, his lack of live octagon work in the last eighteen months must be mentioned.
Meanwhile Du Plessis has faced and earned victory in nine straight UFC bouts, four of them title defenses and against the elite of the MIDDLEWEIGHT division. In the time that Chimaev has had one bout, DDP’s competed in three different title defense fights.
Du Plessis’ fortitude, his size, strength, and experience will all be required in this fight against what many inside the UFC and outside of it regard as a legitimate ‘boogie man.’
I sense that the uber aggression and forward pressure of Du Plessis, provided he is able to navigate this fight into the third round, will eventually drain the energy and will from the front running bully from Beno-Yurt, Chechnya, Russia.
In order to retain his title, Du Plessis must execute the best first ten minutes of fighting since his career started because anything less than that form of effort will find him in the clasp of one of the deadliest submission specialists in the UFC.
Du Plessis +195
This line is slowly rising so use patience and catch the best price possible on DDP.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -125
Carlos Prates -245 vs. Goeff Neal +205 Welterweight (170lbs.)
Texan Neal is an accomplished striker who has power in all appendages. Neal, also a purple belt in BJJ, is currently ranked eleventh in a division full of absolute killers.
Neal arrives hot off a win over Rafael Dos Anjos after having dropped a couple of bouts to legitimate, elite top ten talent in the division in Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry.
In twelfth ranked Carlos Prates we have a chain-smoking Brazilian gangster who is a black belt in BJJ and an ultra-aggressive striker with power.
Several factors force me to regard Prates as most dangerous in this spot. He sports height, reach, and age advantages over Neal, he’s the faster more dynamic athlete despite the fact that he has a heater hanging out of his mouth at all times save for the time he spends fighting in the cage.
Once the bell rings for this fight, we will see too aggressive strikers, both of whom have been defeated by Garry, approach each other with the sole purpose of knocking the other unconscious.
Neal will be the slightly more compact power striker where Prates will be the longer, lengthier, more diversely equipped striker who will employ a forceful leg attack to numb the sound, determined Neal, and take away his movement.
This fight has every indication of being an all-out stand-up battle that fight fans should not miss. At the end of the foray I believe it will be Prates who is able to walk away the victor more than likely via finish.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -165
Edson Barboza -155 vs. Drakkar Klose +135 Lightweight (155lbs)
Brazilian Barboza at thirty-nine moves back up to his original UFC division Lightweight, for this battle of relevance in the UFC.
Klose, his opponent from Phoenix, AZ. is the legitimate lightweight, but he is now thirty-seven himself and enters this key fight off a loss to Joel Alvarez after having won four straight fights in a row.
Both of these men are lethal strikers Klose with heavy hands and more of a direct approach to battle and Barboza with the more diverse striking attack featuring leg numbing kicking acumen.
This fight has finish written all over it but it’s my judgement that it takes one man more than seven minutes thirty seconds to finish the other.
Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -200
Friday morning the ‘Bout business Podcast drops at GambLou.com. There all my final releases for UFC 319 may be accessed.
Thank you for Reading and enjoy the fights!