UFC 321 takes place Saturday from Abu Dhabi UAE.
Fourteen fights are currently scheduled to be waged in front of a full house of area fight fans looking to cheer local and regional fighters to victory.
The large thirty-foot cage will be in use and of the fourteen fights, four take place at 170lbs. or above. Three of those larger bodied brawls will be waged on the main card.
This event features athletes from every corner of the world who will convene in Abu Dhabi to try to earn themselves a victory, some bonus money and for the four fighters in the co main and main event, hopefully a title!
There are six battles where there exists a five-year age difference (or greater) between combatants. A youthful edge of at least five years or more delivers a 60+ percent win percentage to the younger athlete based on UFC fight history. Understanding each athlete’s fight weaponry is critical in predicting fight outcomes as well one needs to be aware of each fighter’s age, and country of origin because the Muslim combatants will be the fighters that draw the support of this Abu Dhabi crowd.
Finally, these fights drop earlier than usual as preliminary action starts at 7am PT with the main card dropping at 11am PT.
Tom Aspinall -380 vs. Cyril Gane +325 Heavyweight (265lbs.) Title Bout
Number one ranked French heavyweight Cyril Gane faces the undisputed heavyweight champion in England’s Tom Aspinall.
This will be the second title opportunity for Gane and one in which the formidable French fighter will look to improve upon his first title opportunity, a loss in the first round to then champion Jon Jones.
The strength of Gane’s fighting is based on his tremendous athleticism which manifests itself in his deft footwork, precision striking/kicking, and his ability to avoid opponent’s strikes.
Gane last competed in December of 2024 against Alexander Volkov in a fight this handicapper and many others believe that Volkov won convincingly only to have the decision go to the Frenchman. Welcome to the UFC being owned by an entertainment company!
In this title fight, Gane will have the benefit of that previous championship experience which will prepare him to compete more effectively than in his first opportunity despite the fact that he arrives here off of a dubious decision win in his last fight almost one year ago.
Gane’s going to require this fight remain on the feet for his fighting specialty is Muay Thai striking which compliments his tremendous athleticism. Gane’s able to move with great fluidity in the octagon while simultaneously being able to deliver numbing kicks, snappy straight jabs and combinations with great precision and effect. The larger thirty-foot cage here is surely a benefit to his fighting style.
In Tom Aspinall we get an English athlete grounded in catch wrestling and boxing but then at a young age Aspinall discovered BJJ to which he now sports a black belt.
Aspinall’s a true heavyweight when it comes to size/power/might and while he may not be as nimble and fluid afoot as Gane, he is extremely athletic, able to effectively cut the cage on opponents that do move well and in the clasp, against the fence and eventually on the canvass Aspinall has few equals.
Once this fight begins it will be Gane who will try to pick and peck at the incoming English grappler for Gane’s plan must be to keep this fight standing at all costs. No matter what Gane says about his improvement in the BJJ/grappling/wrestling department, make little mistake that his grappling/wrestling ability palls in comparison to Aspinall’s world class mastery.
On the feet this fight takes on a much more competitive tone which is why I believe it will take little time for Aspinall to transition this fight into his desired territory…. the clinch, the cage press then ultimately to the floor for a drubbing.
Gane’s striking and power must be respected here but Aspinall, who has been stiff armed by the repeated evasion tactics of Jon Jones will be pent up enough to use his frustration and focused might to attack Gane and earn victory in decisive manner.
Aspinall’s career has essentially been put on hold as he tried in vain to share the cage with the original GOAT of the UFC a now aged and evasive Jon Jones but now as undisputed Champion Aspinall turns his attention into becoming the most decorated heavyweight fighter in the history of the UFC, I believe he has the tools to accomplish this.
Aspinall via domination.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -190
Mackenzie Dern -160 vs. Virna Jandiroba +140 Women’s Flyweight (125lbs.) title
This is a rematch of a 2020 fight where Dern earned victory over Jandiroba via decision.
Then, Jandiroba was beginning her UFC career and had realized success over mid-tier fighting able ladies, but she struggled beating ranked flyweights.
Since her loss to Dern, she’s rolled off a 6-1 record losing only to Amanda Ribas another Brazilian mixed martial artist.
At her base Jandiroba is a world class BJJ practitioner. Her striking lacks speed, power and precision and is used only to position her into making attempts at the clinch in order to transition any fight from feet to clinch to cage then floor.
In Mackenzie Dern we have another Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu savant however Dern’s abilities were groomed since infancy as she is the daughter of BJJ legend Wellington Diaz. When Dern was in diapers her pedigree in BJJ already stood out without mentioning how capable she is now in her prime at thirty-two.
Dern’s striking, once a substantial deficit for her in fights has greatly improved after years with striking coach Jason Parillo and the edge when this fight is on the feet will be hers, so I look for Jandiroba to initiate a grappling contest as soon as practically possible.
Once this fight starts it will be fascinating to see how quickly each woman chooses to fight the other at their forte,’ BJJ. Jandiroba will have to rush to get inside position and force Dern into the grapple. Derm must display athleticism and striking aptitude to be able to fend off the incoming Jandiroba to keep her on the outside which will allow Dern the ability to decide when she wants to mix in some grapple with her striking in order to mix it up on the talented Jandiroba.
Ultimately, Dern’s youth advantage of five years coupled with the confidence of knowing that she defeated Jandiroba before she had developed her repertoire of mixed martial arts weaponry, namely striking will allow her to fold both skills into this fight leaving Jandiroba armed with a singular approach to earning victory in this matchup.
The world class BJJ prowess of each woman’s BJJ may cancel each other out which then forces the more versed mixed martial artist to enlist complimentary tactics (striking) and that ability lies with Dern.
Dern’s world class pedigree and the evolution of her striking game coupled with the fact that she’s competed against a more diverse and respected set of opponents positions her logically as favorite in this fight.
Total in this battle: 4.5Rds Over -125
Jose Delgado -145 vs. Nathaniel Wood +125 Featherweight (145lbs.)
Wood, an Englishman with a world class BJJ base is the fighter in this bout who will sport advantages in cage experience and level of competition faced, two aspects of the fight game I regard as most important.
Wood’s BJJ is complimented by his wrestling/takedown ability and his move up in weight class to the featherweight division several fights ago has seen him realize tremendous returns. He has realized a 5-1 tally since moving on up!
Wood happens to be a smaller featherweight, and his striking is not to the level his BJJ is however Woo has competed against great talent, and he’ll do all he can navigate this fight around his lack of striking ability and toward his wrestling/BJJ prowess.
Jose Delgado is a special talent.
Fighting out of the MMALab in Pheonix, AZ. Delgado will sport dynamic advantages physically. He’s five inches the taller man, he’s five years the younger combatant and he’ll own a four-inch reach advantage arms, two inches with his legs.
Delgado trains with a team of world class competitors, all who compete from 135lbs to 170lbs. So Delgado is cutting his teeth training with world class UFC fighters named O’Malley, Bautista, McGhee, Phillips, etc.
Once this fight begins it will be Delgado who will use his massive size and fluidity of movement to keep Wood on the end of his strikes/kicks realizing that the kicking game may need to be cloaked, as he does not want to give Wood the easy chance to take him to the canvass for a roll by leaving a leg up in the air.
Delgado’s wrestling is keenly developed, and it is worthy of allowing him to compete on par with Wood but why would he engage it a tight close fight when he sports superior advantage standing?
Delgato will be making his first trip out of the Country to fight so there is much by way of fight experience that he will need to overcome while Wood has already indoctrinated travel and its complexities for a fighter into his repertoire, so the stage is set.
An experienced, aggressive wrestler who has been in with the more formidable set off adversaries will face off against a young, large, fast, well rounded ascending athlete looking to make a name for himself off of Wood.
What a compelling bout!
Delgado -145 1u
Delgado -145 parlay to Aspinall -380 1u returns 1.12u
Friday morning first thing the ‘Bout Business Podcast with all my final releases for UFC 321 will be posted at GambLou.com.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!