Mexico City Mexico hosts this week’s UFC fight slate, a card populated with a highly international cast of athletes converging on Mexico City to navigate both the extreme altitude as well opponents that in many cases live and train in the proximity of Mexico City.
Weekly we discuss the advantages age, location, and physical attributes provide each fighter and how they stack up against their opponents but in this week’s case, there is no more favorable advantage than to be able to live, train and dwell in or close to Mexico City especially if one is competing against someone that must travel into Mexico City from outside such drastic altitude.
Athletes able to afford a couple week’s of camp in Mexico City can acclimate appropriately in order to hold advantage or at least hold par against their opponent but for most, the cost of travel, team expenses, hotels, and training do not afford the many the ability to arrive early in order to acclimate to the altitude in Cuidado de Mexico.
This week my handicapping revolves around trying to uncover which athletes outside the local Mexican fighters are able to arrive into Mexico City early, acclimate, then perform at their best come fight night.
Fighters arriving inside of ten days’ time to try to assimilate to the altitude only fool themselves for it is widely understood that assimilation to the Mexico City altitude takes a minimum of ten to twelve days.
Altitude is the big edge this week.
Dogs went 10-4 again last week pushing favorites to a 2026 total of 36-12 or 75%.
Brandon Moreno -225 vs. Lone’er Kavanaugh +185 Flyweight (125lbs.) Main Event
Kavanaugh steps in on short notice as Moreno’s originally scheduled opponent, Asu Almabaev had to drop off the card due to injury.
Kavanaugh, an Englishman is 2-1 in the UFC after being stopped by Charles Johnson in his last bout. He will have his hands full for travel into Mexico City to face a former Mexican champion from halfway across the globe on short notice surely puts him in a disadvantageous position.
Kavanaugh will have a six-year youth advantage coming into this bout, but he will be giving away height, reach and a vast amount of world class fighting experience to Moreno.
Besides testing his mettle on a grizzled UFC veteran, Kavanaugh will learn quickly how important it is to compete against worthy UFC competition which he has not really accomplished yet in his youthful career.
Taking this fight on short notice and having to travel the globe to compete in Mexico City will surely provide Kavanaugh some future considerations as the UFC too understands that this is one difficult spot for the Englishman especially with the short notice nature of the matchup.
Once this fight begins look for Kavanaugh to be forceful with forward striking pressure, but he’ll not be able to provide Moreno with anything that the former champion has not seen yet.
Kavanaugh’s forte’ is striking and he’ll strike with Moreno from moment one and in that altitude, I project him to have about two and a half rounds of successful, frenetic pace before he begins to slow. After the start of round three he may simply become a sparring partner to the former champion fighting in front of his countrymen.
Kavanaugh may surprise Moreno with his youthful quickness, speed, and power and the Kavanaugh camp will arrive to Mexico City not to try to duel Moreno in decision form but rather tot try to jump him early and attempt to steal this fight with a flash knock-out.
That’s the only path I see for Mr. Kavanaugh.
Moreno, though only thirty-two has well more fight years under his belt than that. The wear on him from previous wars waged in the division are the only threats to his being sharp, fast, powerful, and conditioned in this battle.
Moreno on point is beguiling, crafty, intelligent, and versed with a wide array of mixed martial arts weaponry. That said, it’s believed that his best flyweight days may be behind him despite the fact that it may not be apparent in this week’s bout.
Moreno will look to force Kavanaugh to move early in this fight, he’ll fight such that Kavanaugh must use his legs to evade the forward pressure and volume striking that Moreno dishes out. The more Moreno forces Kavanaugh to expend energy in the early rounds the more likely it is for Moreno to get the kid out of there before the end of the scheduled five rounds.
This line opened Moreno -175 which appeared a little light. Moreno now stands -245, a number that depicts his many advantages more accurately in my judgement.
Total in this fight: I see some 3.5 totals and some 4.5 totals. Tiny men competing in a large cage usually indicates an easy over, but with the altitude variance here (Moreno training in it for weeks and Kavanaugh not) the chance for this fight to realize an under is well more likely.
David Martinez -250 vs. Marlon Vera +220 Bantamweight (135lbs.) co main event
Ecuadoran Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera arrives to Mexico City prepared for war.
Vera, the number eight ranked bantamweight in the division will travel into Mexico City to face a violent David Martinez currently ranked number nine in the division.
A decorated black belt in BJJ, Vera, who is a notoriously slow starter has fought the elite of the division and while he is relatively powerless, he does possess great cardio, toughness and in lieu of power Vera unleashes strikes, kicks, elbows, and knees in flurries and from every angle.
Vera earned victory in 2023 against Brazilian Pedro Munhoz but has dropped all three fights since then against elite talent in Sean O’Malley, Deiveson Figueiredo and Aiemann Zahabi who are all top ten athletes in the division.
David Martinez is your typical Mexican warrior. He is forward pressing and he arrives to any fight with world class power striking, an iron will and a granite jaw.
Martinez is a resident of Mexico City, so the prototypical Mexican fighter arrives to this fight with the knowledge that the elevation is his norm, he’s also highly intelligent having studied medicine at The National Autonomous University of Mexico so forcing Vera into frenetic exchanges early only sets the table for his success.
Martinez’ tenure in the UFC is but two fights deep so while he’ll be the more elevation acclimated athlete and the more powerful athlete, he will be giving away a dearth of experience to Vera who at thirty-three years old will be six years the older man in this fight.
Once this fight begins I look for Martinez to go immediately on attack. Vera will attempt to utilize footwork and cage maneuvers to maintain striking/kicking distance in order to try to pepper Martinez with a heavy volume of strikes/kicks as he forces his way into the pocket to engage.
Martinez, a Mexican fighter fighting out of Mexico City holds great advantage in this fight. I believe his advantage in this matchup is greater than his current price of -260 circa.
Martinez -260
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -425
This fight slate has three bouts where the favorite is lines -225 or lower, the rest of the matchup’s are lined with chalk being ridiculously high mostly because Mexican athletes are competing with combatants that are travelling in from other parts of the globe.
This is an easy card to go light on.
Friday the ‘Bout Business podcast will drop across all podcast platforms as well; it is always available at GambLou.com. Obtain all my final releases there once weigh-ins have been completed.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!
Gracias por leer y disfrutar de las peleas!
