Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC LV111 Bonfim vs. Brown: Rude Feud

UFC Fight Night Bonfim vs. Brown drops this Saturday at the APEX facility in Las Vegas, NV.

Thirteen scheduled bouts will be presented with fighters arriving from across the globe to compete in battles being waged from 115lb flyweight ladies to 265lb heavyweight men!

Again this week, the combatants populating this fight card are as relatively obscure and unrecognized at this stage of their careers as the UFC strives this time of year to get fighters scheduled to help fulfill contractual obligations as well put losing fighters on notice.

There are but a handful of fights with aggressive age differences on this card, these statistically favor the younger athlete. Save for one battle on this slate being lined -270 to the favorite, all the other fights on the card are lined competitively for these bouts are well matched.

Last week’s UFC card was/is engrossed in yet another betting scandal however this one is more serious than the last occurrence. I hesitate to report more than this because details are scant and it is responsible to wait for the hard facts before jumping on unreported fact.

Suffice it to say the feds may now be involved. The UFC could now be in a situation of explaining to authorities why they allowed the fight to move forward AFTER they had been warned about the inequities discovered in the betting markets by their watchdog entity Integrity Compliance 360 (IC360), a global compliance technology and advisory platform specializing in comprehensive integrity and regulatory technology*.

More news is coming for certain, and I’ll have strong opinions but only once the hard facts are brought to light!

Last week I split my positions as we earned victory and profit from the Stevie Garcia domination, yet we were robbed of a victory because of ultra dubious refereeing in the Delija vs. Cortez-Acosta fight where Delija was awarded the win, then after video replay and a ten-minute delay the fight was resumed. Seems the UFC is forceful enough to forge their own rules on the fly in these events?!

My fear is that the UFC is transitioning from a legitimate sport with wagering integrity (ala Boxing in the eighties) to scripted outcomes like the WWE. Let’s hope I am incorrect.

Let’s break down a couple of scheduled bouts!

Gabriel Bonfim -185 vs. Randy Brown +160 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Brazilian grappling talent Bonfim is a mixed martial artist who has realized a 5-1 result since his entry into the organization in 2023.

Bonfim, twenty-eight is an accomplished grappler who realizes an average of four plus take downs per fifteen minutes of fighting. His take down defense is solid yet his striking, pedestrian as it is, is still very much in development while his strike defense borders on inadequate.

Bonfim employs forward force to immediately engage opponents. His will to employ his grappling acumen help him cloak the fact that on the feet he is not to the level of top ranked talent in the UFC’s welterweight division.

I say this on the heels of a very controversial (yet another one) decision earned in his most recent fight against Steven Wonderboy’ Thompson. In that fight twelve of fourteen press credentialed professionals in attendance scored the fight for Thomson yet Bonfim was ‘awarded’ a split decision?!

Thomson, a forty one year old with dynamic kickboxing and stand up skills schooled the Brazilian and avoided being grounded yet despite the fact that he did everything he could to ethically earn victory, the decision went to the fighter who has more future merit for the organization as opposed to the fighter who actually won the fight.

Get used to this fight fans because it’s not going away.

In any case, the singularly dimensioned grappler Bonfim takes this fight against another tall, long well-rounded opponent in Randy Brown.

Brown, a Jamaican with a black belt in BJJ and a wealth of experience fights out of Queens, NY.

Brown’s been in with a more competent set of UFC foe, he’s faced fighters of every shape and skillset and provided he can depend on his stout 79% take down defense in this encounter he should be in position to wage this war with Bonfim from the stand-up position which greatly favors him in this fight.

Brown, despite being seven years the more mature fighter at thirty-five is two inches taller than his Brazilian foe as well he sports a six-inch reach advantage over Bonfim who may find it arduous to gain inside position on the athletic jawbreaker from Jamaica.

The telling factor in this fight is where it takes place because if Bonfim is able to bring Brown to the basement floor, he’ll hold advantage but not dominant advantage.

Should Brown be able to keep the Brazilian grappler at distance in a standing battle and force Bonfim into the second round and beyond, he’ll be in terrific position to utilize his well-rounded fight weaponry and beat the Brazilian in a standing battle.

Brown +160

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -120

Joseph Morales -270 vs. Matt Schnell +230 Flyweight(125lbs) co-main event

Morales, 2-2 in the UFC received this opportunity because of the dominant upset win he earned earlier in the year against a heavily favored Alibi Idiris. This was Morales’ return fight to the UFC after realizing a 1-2 tally before being cut.

The win against Idiris showed that Morales had improved greatly in his all around mixed martial arts arsenal specifically his wrestling/grappling which will more than likely be needed against this specific opponent.

That opponent, Matt Schnell, is an athlete that is one victory into the UFC after his retirement from the organization. In almost every case of returning athletes post-retirement, the fighter returning from retirement learns that there was a legitimate reason that they had retired in the first place.

For Schnell we see that despite his world class grappling that the rest of his fight weaponry, namely striking and strike defense is lacking to say the least.

Schnell stood 6-7-1 in the UFC when he retired. Then this past April he returned to face an athlete more fragile and unable to take a straight flush to the face than he in fellow flyweight Jimmy Flick.

Schnell won that fight via decision and now after about a decade in the UFC he makes a co-main event appearance against a pugilist that is forceful with his fists and complimented by a complete grappling game.

This is a ‘changing of the guard’ fight as Schnell, who has been finished in all seven of his UFC bouts enters this fight loser of three of his last four.

Despite the fact that Schnell enters off a win, I must handicap the opponent he fought (Flick) as being journeyman material at best and realistically a talent that unfortunately does not belong in the UFC.

Once this fight begins, it will be Schell that will look to lock up and negate distance from the heavy-handed mauler Morales.

Schnell will find that the Morales grappling is not only much improved over his first UFC run but that his striking, kicking, and boxing are level beyond what Schnell will be able to defend or evade.

I handicap this fight to be relatively one sided and one in which I believe Morales shines.

Joe Morales opened -250 in this fight and his price now stands -270 which I believe is a fair representation of each man’s current skill level.

I handicap Morales to execute what the other seven victors have executed against Schnell, which is to finish him, most likely via KO. That said, my approach will be a simple ‘inside the distance’ tactic.

‘Morales to win via KO/Sub or DQ’ -105

at DraftKings. That will be our position to earn one unit in this week’s co main event.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -170

Strong lean to Under

Friday morning the ‘But Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com. All my final releases .3

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

 

*Integrity Compliance 360 description came from their webpage.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC Fight Night Garcia vs. Onama: Ante up!

The UFC returns to its APEX facility for this week’s Fight Night event. The fight card is populated with thirteen scheduled bouts utilizing the smaller APEX twenty-five-foot octagon.

An international set of combatants descend on Las Vegas to propel their careers by overtaking other specialized fighters arriving from every corner of the globe.

To date favorites are running 64.6% in the UFC.

Stevie Garcia -120 vs. David Onama +100 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Onama, 6-2 in the UFC trains in Kansas City, MO. He arrives to this main event after having won four straight fights against solid competition. A refugee from Uganda, Onama’s background of despair and immigration to the U.S. is a compelling one.

Athletic and brutally powerful, Onama makes fights by forcing the throwdown. He is fit, experienced in the UFC and packs ridiculous power in his hands despite the fact that he’s earned decisions in each of his last three bouts. Understand however that those recent foes were grizzled UFC veterans themselves.

When the bell rings for a fight, Onama simply walks down his adversary and initiates an immediate throw down in the center of the cage. Those who allow him this form of fight are often finished as it takes deft movement, precision striking laced with speed, quickness, and effective strike evasion to make it a full fifteen with this young aggressor.

In Stevie Garcia we have a fighter that could be described by using the same breakdown as I just gave Onama.

Garcia has the same aggressive approach, the same power and might and arrives with wins in his last six bouts five of which were finishes.

In this slugfest, it is Garcia that will be the slightly taller and longer man who fights from a southpaw stance. Garcia sports a kickboxing and jiu-Jitsu background and has now folded fluid boxing into his repertoire and his defense and strike evasion are what stand out as blatant differences between he and his Ugandan adversary.

This fight will be an absolute barn burning standing battle unless one man gets zapped in which case we may see a takedown attempt.

Onama’s willingness to take a strike in order to deliver one puts Garcia in a slightly more advantageous position because Garcia’s strike defense is foundational to his game as he gets hit with only 2.2 significant strikes out of every five minutes of fight time while his opponent Onama receives a whopping 4.73 per five minutes of fight time.

Evading power fists, elbows, and kicks are as important as landing them and it is in the balance of Garcia where I find advantage for this fight.

Garcia’s patience, his experience, and the ability to evade strikes together make him a very reasonable position and he stands just under his opening number.

Garcia -120

Total in this fight 1.5 Rds. Over -225

Waldo Cortez-Acosta -115 vs Ante Delija -105 Heavyweight (265lbs)

Huge men with power stuffed into the smaller twenty-five-foot octagon has the potential of being a dynamically violent outcome.

Cortez-Acosta is the athlete with more substantial UFC experience. He arrives to this battle 7-2 in the UFC but off a loss in his last battle to Sergei Pavlovich.

The Dominican Acosta nicknamed ‘Sala boy’ has profuse power in all appendages and uses all mixed martial arts weaponry to great advantage for Cortez-Acosta’s strongest fight attribute may be his well-rounded ability as well his granite beard. Cotez-Acosta has never been knocked out nor submitted as his only losses have been decisions.

In Delija we have an athlete new to the organization and with that, far less experience as well he has faced a lesser set of competent fight adversary than has Cortez-Acosta.

The Croatian Delija is beneficiary of this opportunity because after competing with the PFL his move to the UFC has produced two first round decimations over both Yorgan de Castro and Marcin Tybura.

In one corner we have Cortez-Acosta with a depth of UFC experience, substantial power and little wrestling ability other than sturdy take down defense.

In the other corner we have an athletic, adroit power striker in Delija who is more explosive and damaging with his strikes than his opponent however he has not seen the second round of a fight since 2023.

This fight is lined 2.5 Under -125 for a reason and that’s because one of these mammoth men is going to clobber the other.

Which one is it?

I handicap it to be Delija, the more explosive, quicker fresher mixed martial artist.

Delija -105

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops in the morning hours at GambLou.com, catch all my final releases there!

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC 321 Aspinall vs. Gane: Bon Appetit!

UFC 321 takes place Saturday from Abu Dhabi UAE.

Fourteen fights are currently scheduled to be waged in front of a full house of area fight fans looking to cheer local and regional fighters to victory.

The large thirty-foot cage will be in use and of the fourteen fights, four take place at 170lbs. or above. Three of those larger bodied brawls will be waged on the main card.

This event features athletes from every corner of the world who will convene in Abu Dhabi to try to earn themselves a victory, some bonus money and for the four fighters in the co main and main event, hopefully a title!

There are six battles where there exists a five-year age difference (or greater) between combatants. A youthful edge of at least five years or more delivers a 60+ percent win percentage to the younger athlete based on UFC fight history. Understanding each athlete’s fight weaponry is critical in predicting fight outcomes as well one needs to be aware of each fighter’s age, and country of origin because the Muslim combatants will be the fighters that draw the support of this Abu Dhabi crowd.

Finally, these fights drop earlier than usual as preliminary action starts at 7am PT with the main card dropping at 11am PT.

Tom Aspinall -380 vs. Cyril Gane +325 Heavyweight (265lbs.) Title Bout

Number one ranked French heavyweight Cyril Gane faces the undisputed heavyweight champion in England’s Tom Aspinall.

This will be the second title opportunity for Gane and one in which the formidable French fighter will look to improve upon his first title opportunity, a loss in the first round to then champion Jon Jones.

The strength of Gane’s fighting is based on his tremendous athleticism which manifests itself in his deft footwork, precision striking/kicking, and his ability to avoid opponent’s strikes.

Gane last competed in December of 2024 against Alexander Volkov in a fight this handicapper and many others believe that Volkov won convincingly only to have the decision go to the Frenchman. Welcome to the UFC being owned by an entertainment company!

In this title fight, Gane will have the benefit of that previous championship experience which will prepare him to compete more effectively than in his first opportunity despite the fact that he arrives here off of a dubious decision win in his last fight almost one year ago.

Gane’s going to require this fight remain on the feet for his fighting specialty is Muay Thai striking which compliments his tremendous athleticism.  Gane’s able to move with great fluidity in the octagon while simultaneously being able to deliver numbing kicks, snappy straight jabs and combinations with great precision and effect. The larger thirty-foot cage here is surely a benefit to his fighting style.

In Tom Aspinall we get an English athlete grounded in catch wrestling and boxing but then at a young age Aspinall discovered BJJ to which he now sports a black belt.

Aspinall’s a true heavyweight when it comes to size/power/might and while he may not be as nimble and fluid afoot as Gane, he is extremely athletic, able to effectively cut the cage on opponents that do move well and in the clasp, against the fence and eventually on the canvass Aspinall has few equals.

Once this fight begins it will be Gane who will try to pick and peck at the incoming English grappler for Gane’s plan must be to keep this fight standing at all costs. No matter what Gane says about his improvement in the BJJ/grappling/wrestling department, make little mistake that his grappling/wrestling ability palls in comparison to Aspinall’s world class mastery.

On the feet this fight takes on a much more competitive tone which is why I believe it will take little time for Aspinall to transition this fight into his desired territory…. the clinch, the cage press then ultimately to the floor for a drubbing.

Gane’s striking and power must be respected here but Aspinall, who has been stiff armed by the repeated evasion tactics of Jon Jones will be pent up enough to use his frustration and focused might to attack Gane and earn victory in decisive manner.

Aspinall’s career has essentially been put on hold as he tried in vain to share the cage with the original GOAT of the UFC a now aged and evasive Jon Jones but now as undisputed Champion Aspinall turns his attention into becoming the most decorated heavyweight fighter in the history of the UFC, I believe he has the tools to accomplish this.

Aspinall via domination.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -190

Mackenzie Dern -160 vs. Virna Jandiroba +140 Women’s Flyweight (125lbs.)  title

This is a rematch of a 2020 fight where Dern earned victory over Jandiroba via decision.

Then, Jandiroba was beginning her UFC career and had realized success over mid-tier fighting able ladies, but she struggled beating ranked flyweights.

Since her loss to Dern, she’s rolled off a 6-1 record losing only to Amanda Ribas another Brazilian mixed martial artist.

At her base Jandiroba is a world class BJJ practitioner. Her striking lacks speed, power and precision and is used only to position her into making attempts at the clinch in order to transition any fight from feet to clinch to cage then floor.

In Mackenzie Dern we have another Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu savant however Dern’s abilities were groomed since infancy as she is the daughter of BJJ legend Wellington Diaz. When Dern was in diapers her pedigree in BJJ already stood out without mentioning how capable she is now in her prime at thirty-two.

Dern’s striking, once a substantial deficit for her in fights has greatly improved after years with striking coach Jason Parillo and the edge when this fight is on the feet will be hers, so I look for Jandiroba to initiate a grappling contest as soon as practically possible.

Once this fight starts it will be fascinating to see how quickly each woman chooses to fight the other at their forte,’ BJJ. Jandiroba will have to rush to get inside position and force Dern into the grapple. Derm must display athleticism and striking aptitude to be able to fend off the incoming Jandiroba to keep her on the outside which will allow Dern the ability to decide when she wants to mix in some grapple with her striking in order to mix it up on the talented Jandiroba.

Ultimately, Dern’s youth advantage of five years coupled with the confidence of knowing that she defeated Jandiroba before she had developed her repertoire of mixed martial arts weaponry, namely striking will allow her to fold both skills into this fight leaving Jandiroba armed with a singular approach to earning victory in this matchup.

The world class BJJ prowess of each woman’s BJJ may cancel each other out which then forces the more versed mixed martial artist to enlist complimentary tactics (striking) and that ability lies with Dern.

Dern’s world class pedigree and the evolution of her striking game coupled with the fact that she’s competed against a more diverse and respected set of opponents positions her logically as favorite in this fight.

Total in this battle: 4.5Rds Over -125

Jose Delgado -145 vs. Nathaniel Wood +125 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Wood, an Englishman with a world class BJJ base is the fighter in this bout who will sport advantages in cage experience and level of competition faced, two aspects of the fight game I regard as most important.

Wood’s BJJ is complimented by his wrestling/takedown ability and his move up in weight class to the featherweight division several fights ago has seen him realize tremendous returns. He has realized a 5-1 tally since moving on up!

Wood happens to be a smaller featherweight, and his striking is not to the level his BJJ is however Woo has competed against great talent, and he’ll do all he can navigate this fight around his lack of striking ability and toward his wrestling/BJJ prowess.

Jose Delgado is a special talent.

Fighting out of the MMALab in Pheonix, AZ. Delgado will sport dynamic advantages physically. He’s five inches the taller man, he’s five years the younger combatant and he’ll own a four-inch reach advantage arms, two inches with his legs.

Delgado trains with a team of world class competitors, all who compete from 135lbs to 170lbs. So Delgado is cutting his teeth training with world class UFC fighters named O’Malley, Bautista, McGhee, Phillips, etc.

Once this fight begins it will be Delgado who will use his massive size and fluidity of movement to keep Wood on the end of his strikes/kicks realizing that the kicking game may need to be cloaked, as he does not want to give Wood the easy chance to take him to the canvass for a roll by leaving a leg up in the air.

Delgado’s wrestling is keenly developed, and it is worthy of allowing him to compete on par with Wood but why would he engage it a tight close fight when he sports superior advantage standing?

Delgato will be making his first trip out of the Country to fight so there is much by way of fight experience that he will need to overcome while Wood has already indoctrinated travel and its complexities for a fighter into his repertoire, so the stage is set.

An experienced, aggressive wrestler who has been in with the more formidable set off adversaries will face off against a young, large, fast, well rounded ascending athlete looking to make a name for himself off of Wood.

What a compelling bout!

Delgado -145 1u

Delgado -145 parlay to Aspinall -380 1u returns 1.12u

Friday morning first thing the ‘Bout Business Podcast with all my final releases for UFC 321 will be posted at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC Vancouver De Ritter vs. Allen: Allen wrenched?

Vancouver, BC in Canada is the scene for this week’s UFC Fight night a production scheduled for thirteen bouts, four of which will be fought at 170lbs. or higher. A large 30’ octagon will be in use and the Canadian crowd, as passionate as any in the world will be out if force to support their compatriots.

Prelims drop at 1pm PST with the main slate at 4pm PST.

Renier De Ritter -195 vs. Brandon Allen +170 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Brandon Allen steps in on short notice to take Fluffy Hernandez’s position on this main event.

With a background in wrestling and boxing Allen took to BJJ at a young age and developed his skills through amateur fighting and eventually the Legacy circuit as an early pro.

Allen’s grappling is his base strength. He is crafty, determined and once able to clasp onto the opponent, he becomes nasty and enveloping while forcing them against the fence then ultimately down to the floor for a roll.

Allen’s striking is nominal as evidenced by his negative significant strike differential but in this fight he’ll actually have the more refined striking game simply because his opponent is less skilled in the striking aspect of mixed martial arts weaponry than he.

That stated, Allen will be giving away two inches of height and four inches of reach to his adversary not to mention at least ten to fifteen pounds come fight night so any technical striking advantage Allen may have on the feet will more than likely be squelched by the size, length, and aggression of De Ritter.

Renier De Ritter is now four fights into his UFC career. He enters this main event ranked fourth in the division and off four straight victories, his last a dominating performance over former champion Robert Whittaker.

A decorated world class grappler with only nominal striking acumen, de Ritter, a black belt in both Judo and BJJ will be efficient in trying to clasp onto Allen and initiate a grappling competition.

In the clasp and in tight quarters is where De Ritter must take this fight in order to win it. De Ritter’s massive size will position him to be in great advantage over Allen once engaged based on his technical expertise, grappling acumen size and world class Judo/BJJ.

On the feet, De Ritters striking is base, there is no snap on his strikes only pawing at this evolution of his game and his ability to evade strikes is in development also. De Ritter will need to transition this fight from striking into groping as soon as he possible.

As strong and confident as Allen is about his grappling he must not allow himself to fall into the challenge of grappling this grappler.

The de Ritter blueprint for success as well as the blueprint for dominating this eighth ranked opponent will be to immediately engage in grappling.

I believe Allen will eventually have to accommodate him and from there it will be fascinating to view Allen’s BJJ and ground game against De Ritters.

De Ritter -195

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Under -140

Lean Over

Charles Jourdain -195 vs. Davey Grant +165 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

After losing two featherweight fights in 2024 Canadian fighter Charles Jourdain, a mixed martial artist decorated with a black belt in BJJ moved to the lower bantamweight division to try to resuscitate his career.

In his last outing he won his inaugural fight in that division against a journeyman athlete and now looks to add to that momentum by competing against a well more formidable opponent in England’s Davey Grant.

Jourdain’s an inch taller and a decade younger than his English opponent which provides us a glimpse of why the money has moved toward Jourdain the local fighter. Jourdain will be the slicker, faster athlete in the cage and one who uses the switch stance to great effect in this battle as he tries to keep the incoming slugger from Briton away from him.

Jourdain’s primarily a striking based athlete who sports a positive significant strike differential but his grappling/wrestling skills namely his takedown defense is poor, which may be a significant factor in this fight.

Davey Grant does not fight like a thirty-nine-year-old. Grant’s significant strikes per five minutes of fight time overshadow the miniscule ratio of Jourdain and despite the fact that Grant is a decade older, his feet, movement, durability and especially his power are all significant contributors to Grant’s success.

This bout sets up to be waged on the feet but with that in mind I handicap the forceful forward striking pressure and determination of Grant to be more founded and sounder than the volume striking and kicking of his Canadian counterpart.

Jourdain’s tactic will be of the ‘stick and move’ category for he does not want to grapple nor stand toe-to-toe with Grant.

Jourdain opened a -200 chalk then went immediately to pick-em before the market pushed the price on Jourdain back up to its current price of -170.

This fight will be as electric as any on the card. Jourdain’s youth and his fighting in front of his fellow Canadians will provide him certain edge while Grant’s experience, level of competition faced, wrestling and dead power will provide him his advantage.

I handicap Grant’s grappling to be a determining factor in this bout.

Grant +165

Total in this fight: 2.5 over -195

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com, catch all my final releases for UFC FN Vancouver there.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC RIO Oliveira vs. Gamrot: A Bronx flail?

UFC Fight Night Rio de Janeiro is a fight card stacked with thirteen scheduled fights.

Most of the fights take on a ‘Brazil vs. the World’ theme as the UFC is always keen on highlighting local/regional athletes when it travels to far away lands.

The organization often places local fighters in ‘favorable’ positions regarding their matchups as the foundation of the UFC’s expansion is to electrify the crowds in the cities it visits in order to seed the growth of its brand in that area.

Fighters in Rio will compete in the larger thirty-foot octagon and in front of a crowd that athletes from Brazil strive to compete in front of while combatants from around the world yearn to compete in front of these hysterical fans because of their knowledge of the game.

There are only four fights featuring the larger men at 170lbs. or above but three of those are heavyweight battles which have the potential to electrify the crowd and put them in the proper mentality to support their local/regional athletes.

Lastly, there are five battles where the youth advantage is five years or greater. Fighters who sport a five-year age (youth) advantage over their adversary earn victory above 60% of the time and that percentage grows as the age disparity increases.

Last week Dom Reyes performed like Dom DeLuise in the octagon and was iced in the first round of his fight in Perth moving digital results to 20-23 +.15u

Time to earn!

Charles Oliveira -120 vs. Mateusz Gamrot +100 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Eighth ranked lightweight fighter Mateusz Gamrot arrives to Rio an overlooked and somewhat disrespected fighter.

After a loss in 2022 Gamrot has rolled through lightweight competition until he lost an ultra-close split decision fight to Dan Hooker in Australia in 2024, a fight that could have gone to either fighter based on my scoring of the fight.

Gamrot is a world class pressure wrestler who earned numerous decorations in wrestling prior to transitioning into MMA. He’s credited with a blue belt in BJJ and while his striking is still developing, Gamrot’s able to use his striking to effectively gain wrestling range which allows him to clasp onto opponents then maneuver them against the cage then onto the mat for a mauling.

Gamrot’s abilities are so sound that he is sidestepped by opponents because he is so dangerous in the cage as well he gets overlooked by the organization because of how effectively he uses his dominant wrestling.

The UFC prefers (and bonuses) striking battles where they may highlight vicious KO’s and phenomenal finishes, so Gamrot and his world class wrestling have tasted some discrimination in gaining top five battles because of his wrestling prowess.

Brazil’s Charles ‘DoBronx’ Oliveira is a world class mixed martial artist decorated with a 4th degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a Black prajied in Muay Thai.

Oliveira has competed against the absolute elite between the featherweight and lightweight divisions and at thirty-five he remains every bit as dangerous as anyone in the division.

Oliveira’s going to be the longer athlete in the cage which will compliment his striking/kicking. I handicap Oliveira to hold substantial advantage while this fight is being competed on the feet for Oliveira’s striking is more speed based, diversity laden and precision founded than almost anyone in the division let alone this vice grip wrestler from Poland.

The interesting facet of this fight will occur when this fight hits the floor for Oliveira is at the top of the totem pole when it comes to BJJ while Gamrot’s wrestling is on the same world class level as Oliveira’s grappling is. That said, Gamrot wants this fight on the floor because he too believes his wrestling is superior to Charles’ BJJ!

To get the opportunity to watch these two roll on the canvas would be a special treat for all UFC fans not to mention that it is my judgement Gamrot MUST drag this battle to the floor to display his dominance because he believes that his pressure wrestling can overcome Oliveira’s world class BJJ.

One of the first mixed martial arts edicts I was taught by a Gracie fifth degree BJJ blackbelt Head Coach was that world class wrestling is kryptonite to world class BJJ.

With that in mind I must trust that Gamrot’s unrelenting forward pressure, his cardio and his deep belief that should he lose this fight, he’ll freefall into obscurity within this division will not only allow him to bring the Brazilian to the floor, but once there he will hold that wrestling advantage and use it to his favor.

Gamrot +100 1u

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds. Under -115

Jafel Filho -110 vs. Clayton Carpenter -110 Flyweight (125lbs.)

This fight is another top end Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu talent facing a world class American wrestling savant.

Filho, a Brazilian from Rio, is another world class BJJ practitioner. A Nove Uniao team member, Filho will have the advantage of being the taller, longer fighter in this matchup.

Filho’s striking is low volume and low power as he utilizes stand up only position himself to transition any fight onto the floor for a roll.

In Clayton Carpenter we have a special American wrestling talent who arrives to Rio on the bounce …off a loss.

That loss to Tagir Ulanbekov was a terrific experience for Carpenter for it displayed that he has the ability to be a world class UFC flyweight, but that he must not overestimate his wrestling especially if he finds himself in bottom position.

Carpenter’s wrestling, his cardio and his striking together with his desire to be ‘the actor’ in this fight will enable him to dominate in this stern test in Brazil. Again, as I was taught, world class wrestling is kryptonite for world class BJJ!

Carpenter -110 1u

Total in this bout: 2.5Rds over -170

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com

Get all my final releases post weigh-ins there.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 320 Ankalaev vs. Pereira: The REMATCH

This week the UFC is in Las Vegas for UFC 320 a PPV event featuring fourteen great mixed martial arts fights headlined by two five round championship bouts. One, a bantamweight title fight in the co main event and second, the main event which give us the long-anticipated rematch of Magomed Ankalaev the current UFC Light Heavyweight titleholder facing the former champion in Alex Pereira.

All fourteen bouts will be held in the larger 30’ octagon in front of a boisterous Las Vegas T Mobile arena crowd.

There are seven fights featuring welterweight men and larger which I track because of the higher percentage of finishes for the larger bodied fighters. There are also a few fights featuring fighters with substantial age differences (five or more years) that are of note.

Early Prelims for UFC 320 begin at 3pm PT with Prelims at 5pm PT and finally the PPV portion of the card dropping 7pm PT.

Magomed Ankalaev -240 vs. Alex Pereira +200 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) title

Russian Light heavyweight Champion Ankalaev is an International Master of Sport in Amateur MMA and a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo. He enters this fight brimming with confidence after having defeated Pereira this past March in relatively one-sided affair.

Ankalaev fights with ‘grappling on his mind’ and while he is effective and powerful with his striking, he is not overly quick, precise, or dazzling in that specialty. Ankalaev relies heavily on his kicking attack as an effective weapon to not only create distance but also back opponents up so he may earn his way into the pocket and transition to his vice grip wrestling ability.

Ankalaev will be the slightly shorter man giving up reach in this fight so the metrics for his success means he must work his way into the pocket and squelch the reach/striking length and thus effectiveness of ‘Poatan’ in order for him to realize success in this fight. He seemed to have little problem gaining inside position in their first fight so it will be interesting to see what if any adjustments each combatant bring to this rematch.

For Pereira, the story is that in UFC competition, his grappling/wrestling and BJJ were only adequate and nowhere near the level of expertise that he holds with his world class kickboxing, Muay Thai striking abilities.

In their first fight it’s my belief that Pereira’s travel and UFC appearances (he missed few UFC events) impeded his ability to train effectively for their first bout especially when we saw how lethargic and listless he looked in battle.

That mentioned we must heap some credit on Ankalaev for basically beating Pereira at his own game…the stand up!

Will Ankalaev utilize a wrestling/grappling heavy approach for this fight in order to change it up on Periera or will he walk the former champion down on the feet in order to corner him and force pressure onto the Brazilian striker in order to sap him of his snap and power?

Pereira’s height, reach and precision power striking/kicking must be utilized more effectively in this fight to back Ankalaev up then appropriating distance, reign damage on the current titleholder.

Ankalaev for his part must back up Periera with forward pressure, constant clutching and even though he did not take Pereira down in the first fight it is my judgement that he will need to in order to retain his title in this bout.

For Pereira, he needs to arrive more prepared to fight in a war, he must utilize his footwork to maintain ideal striking distance then try to time power punches, knees, and elbows onto the incoming grappler when he attempts to force his way inside.

Ankalaev’s Sambo and unrelenting forward pressure must be dealt with and Periera’s adjustments from the first fight will need to be addressed by the current champion as well.

While Pereira’s been training BJJ, and wrestling take down defense with Glover Teixeira constantly we saw little of that art in the first fight as Ankalaev effectively beat Pereira at his own game…stand up striking!

Ankalaev is a fighter with world class mixed martial arts ability however his aura is as exciting as old cardboard.

Ankalaev does not move the public needle in the slightest and while that should never apply in any modern mixed martial arts competition the fact is that the UFC bonus’ fighters for exciting finishes, devastating knockouts and crowd crazed performances of which Ankalaev has never been apt at.

Meanwhile Pereira’s aura, his devasting power and his public following DO move the UFC needle and make little mistake that this rematch was set up to give Pereira (and the UFC) a shot at winning that title back in order to breath fire and intensity into the division again.

Intangibles like this may seem remote and obscure but make little mistake in the fact that the UFC really wants/needs Pereira back as titleholder in order to ‘move the needle’ on viewership for future title shots because with Ankalaev this division is dried out and dormant. Unfortunate but true.

Can ‘Poatan’ find his ‘Chama’ and get the light heavyweight title back in his hands and inject excitement and eyeballs back into the division?

His camp as well the UFC sure hope so!

Ankalaev opened -200 for their first fight and he opened -180 for this one. He now stands -240 with the takeback on Pereira +200.

I am fascinated to determine what Periera will do and can do to change the result of the fight they competed in this past March.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -170, the March fight’s total was 2.4 and the result was a decision.

Merab Dvalishvili -380 vs. Cory Sandhagen +325 Bantamweight (135lbs.) title

Sandhagen is the forth ranked bantamweight in the division. He is a tall, long highly agile striker who utilizes his length and body frame as effectively as anyone in the organization.

Decorated with a brown belt in BJJ Sandhagen is also highly dangerous on the ground because of the combination of his grappling experience and his physically freakish length.

Sandhagen sports a +1.66 significant strike differential to go along with his take down average of 1,30 per fifteen minutes of fight time. About the only susceptibility Sandhagen has is that because of his unusual length he is open to opponents take downs for he is effective in stopping the takedown only 62% of the time.

In Georgian champion Merab Dvalishvili we get a short, squat, highly motivated cardio machine who is gifted with unbelievable cardio ability, world class wrestling acumen and in the cage, an extremely aggressive nature.

Merab owns the record in the UFC for takedowns as he has realized 97 of them in fifteen UFC bouts for an average of 5.84 take downs per fifteen minutes of fight time.

In fights Merab puts new meaning to ‘unrelenting forward pressure’ a term I use to describe aggressive wrestlers.

Once this fight begins I handicap Sandhagen attempting to use his length, athletic nature and all his savvy to try to maintain striking distance in order to club, knee and elbow Dvalishvili as he rushes to engage in the takedown.

Space, distance and striking will be Sandhagen’s allies in this fight while Merab will strive to enter the pocket on the challenger, clasp onto him then drag him to the floor for a trip to hell.

Dvalishvili is a gifted wrestler who understands that the UFC is looking for excitement and flash finishes. His only potential pitfall in this fight is to believe that he can stand and strike with a much taller man that is a more refined, specialized, and precise striker.

In this fight Merab needs to stick to his strength, come out and ground Sandhagen then put him into the meat grinder for as long as Sandhagen can survive.

Should he come out swinging he could find himself being carried out on his shield.

Total in this fight 4.5 Rds. Over -325

I’ll take the easy route this week and play a main event parlay:

Ankalaev -240 to Dvsalishvili -380 1.28u to earn 1u

Unusual as it is, I am unable to feel confident in any underdog releases this early in the UFC 320 week. Friday my ‘Bout Business Podcast drops and I’m certain to have located a stray mutt or two by then.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC Fight Night Perth: Beatdown on the Boorloo

After a week off, the UFC travels to Perth, Australia for this week’s Fight night event.

The card offers fight enthusiasts fourteen bouts thirteen of which feature an athlete from Oceania facing someone from outside that region. There are few fights featuring wide gaps in age which by the numbers favor the younger fighter.

Seven of the fourteen fights will be held at welterweight (170lbs.) and above. Larger men competing translates to a higher rate of finishing potential which will thrill the voracious Aussie crowd who will pack the house to back their compatriots all of whom will compete in the larger thirty-foot octagon.

Prelims begin at 4pm PT with the main slate scheduled to begin at 7pm PT.

Carlos Ulberg -260 vs. Dominic Reyes +220 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) main event

Third ranked Ulberg arrives to compete in front of his brethren. He arrives with a statuesque physique, sharp effective kickboxing prowess, and tremendous momentum.

His father, a boxer, raised Ulberg in the sweet science before Ulberg transitioned into kickboxing where his 6’4” frame, his wild athleticism, and his aggressive nature could thrive, and dominate.

Ulberg is undefeated as a professional save for his UFC debut where he was finished by Kennedy Nzechukwu who has now moved up to heavyweight. Since that fight Ulberg’s torn through the division winning eight straight against legitimate but not world class competition save for the two recent victories over Volkan Oezdimer and Jan Blachowicz both of which were decisions.

Ulberg’s fight plan is simple, maintain precious distance which allows him to attack opponents with straight fists, ‘teep’ kicks and any array of knees and elbows. Ulberg is quite agile and quick for his size which magnifies his natural power.

One comment about Ulberg’s competition that must be mentioned is that the UFC has spoon fed this striker with like-minded adversaries (fellow strikers) as Ulberg to date has yet to face any athlete who arrives with the ambition of wrestling/grappling Ulberg.

It’s my judgement that the UFC in its ambition to ‘encourage’ mixed martial arts growth in this geographical area has manicured Ulberg’s schedule to ‘contribute’ to his ascent in the division especially since the fall off of previous champions in the region Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski.

Californian Dom Reyes is best known for beating Jon Jones but not receiving the actual decision via judges.

A swoon followed that fight as Reyes went to the dark side losing in violent fashion to competent ranked adversaries, but he remained focused and confident in his approach and in his ability to compete in this division.

He now finds himself ranked seventh among light heavy’s and he’ll soon be in the cage with third-ranked Ulberg after having won his last three battles.

Reyes and Ulberg are quite similar in all the physical aspects of fighting that I track. Reyes’ background in wrestling gives him some advantage should this fight hit the mat but in all reality this will be a stand-up match and one where Reyes’s skills are being discounted and overlooked as I handicap this fight.

Reyes’ level of competition faced plus the fact that he did not fold up after those colossal losses years ago tells me the guy wants to be here.

He wants to be champion, and after the display he produced against then champion Jones years back his belief now after three wins is strong. The results Reyes has earned in his last three fights allow me to handicap him as being more competitive than current pricing indicates.

This fight reminds me a little of the Johnny Walker fight in China when he was set up to be the patsy for Mingyang Zhang and he ended up winning via finish.

Reyes has the tools, the experience, the belly but most importantly the belief to make this fight so much more of a battle than the marketplace is giving him credit for.

There is value on Dom Reyes at this price.

Reyes +220

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -145

As mentioned above this card is basically an Oceania vs. the World set up.

We understand that the goal here is to put the local/regional fighters in favorable positions but with fourteen opportunities it’s my role to find a ‘ship in’ that will arrive live to their battle and earn victory.

Justin Tafa -125 vs. Louie Sutherland +105 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

Aussie Justin Tafa is a large, powerful heavyweight who is equipped to compete in any stand-up battle but finds himself unable to deal with the diversity of a founded mixed martial artist’s weaponry especially if it includes wrestling/grappling.

Tafa’s last two fights were losses against nominally talented opponents and in this one he receives the advantage of taking on a debuting adversary.

In Sutherland we have an English bloke who can strike, kick and choke. Sutherland will be the taller, longer, larger heavyweight in the cage and his aggressive nature and ability to grapple will provide the Englishman with tremendous opportunity here.

Yes, Sutherland is being sent into Australia to be the fall guy for the local here, but it is my position that this fight not only exceeds the total but will end with Sutherland +105 getting his hand raised.

Total in this fight 1.5 Rds. Over -150

The ‘Bout Business Podcast is off a 5+ unit profit last card and like fighters we too carry great momentum into this fight slate. Catch all my final releases for this fight card Friday midday at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability

NFL Musings and Abusing

 

It appears the fire in Miami is burning hottest inside that locker room. This team just lost to a team that had only earned victory in Miami twice in the last decade. Miami’s burnin’.

The Bills’ early schedule is a cakewalk. They’ll likely be 5-0 after the first handful of games. It’s then that we will see regression from a team poised to win it all but not poised to win twelve ballgames.

How ’bout them Cowboys, Bears, and Jets-Jets-Jets? Futility from ownership down through the entire organization over a generation shows in each of these teams, as their play on the field is dismal.

Danny Dimes may have found a situation where he has running backs and wide receivers, yes, but more importantly, he has an offensive line. Without horses, you’re cooked in the NFL.

Zac Taylor is a dead man walking.The Falcons were a team we invested in this year with Over positions. It looks like we invested well after a meager two weeks of football.

I have mentioned several times how one must simply step back and let Jim Harbaugh take over. He is, and so are his Bolts!

Chargers +800 to win the AFC?

I just released it this morning!

We’re two weeks into the 2025 season, and teams are just finding themselves.

Take your time, be patient, and conduct your own work—unless you simply wish to trust me and my due diligence, then fire away and enjoy.

We have four-plus months of this remaining!

GambLou.com

It’s Business! 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC NOCHE Silva vs. Lopes: La Noche Triste?

San Antonio, Texas hosts this week’s UFC Noche event which traditionally has been a tribute to the Mexican fighting culture but has expanded to include other Latino and South American cultures into the tribute.

There are fourteen scheduled bouts on this fight slate, one of which is a TUF final where debuting athletes will compete for their chance to be included in the UFC.

Several athletes competing on this card are Mexican or of Mexican heritage as well there is another handful of fighters arriving from Central and South America to compete.

We have but two bouts featuring men weighing more than 170 lbs.

San Antonio will utilize the larger thirty-foot octagon for this event. Needless to say the Lone Star/Mexican crowd will show up to cheer on their brethren and jeer their foes.

Last week I split positions as Mason Jones -120 captured a great comeback win for us but Ciao Borralho -120, looked like a deer in the headlights as he fought in tepid, timid fashion and was dominated by Nassourdine Imavov.

Let’s knuckle up for Noche!

Jean Silva -240 vs. Diego Lopes +210 Featherweight (145lbs) main event

This will be an incredible matchup of young, ascending UFC talent.

Brazilian banger Jean Silva, a member of the once untouchable ‘Fighting Nerds’ team from Brazil enters this fight with immense momentum.

Silva is lighting fast, has great feet which allows him to shift, evade and maneuver fluently in the heat of battle and of course he has solid grappling and explosive, lighting quick striking acumen which is speed, precision and power based.

Silva, ‘Lord’ as he is called in the cage is an obtusely aggressive wrecking machine of a barking fighter who steps only forward in his zeal to annihilate any foe at his earliest possible opportunity.

Silva will utilize any opportunity outside the cage to bombard opponents with his trash talk and brazen attitude. He wins many of his battles before the bell for round one chimes but in this adversary he will be tested and tested to his core!

Silva has accrued a positive strike differential of .74 significant strikes per round and has realized five straight finishes in the UFC. The competition he has faced he has demolished and the acumen of the fighters he has demolished have grown over time in fight competence and ability.

Raging, aggressive, athletic, a fierce competitor with a brazen attitude, this is tenth ranked featherweight Jean Silva.

Standing on the other side of the cage from this maniac Silva is second ranked featherweight Diego Lopes.

Diego Lopes enters this fight the more stoic, composed, patient mixed martial artist. His base is boxing/striking and BJJ though in recent months Lopes has been grinding on his wrestling development which is testimony to his focus to become a complete world class champion.

Though less vocal and bombastic than his opponent, Lopes’ method of attack is a bit more undercover. He chooses to conduct himself as a silent assassin.

Diego systematically breaks down adversaries by using unrelenting forward pressure to corner opponents then bombard them with power striking combinations, knees and elbows included.

What makes this fight so fascinating is the dynamic clash of physical as well mental approaches in this fight.

Silva will be a barking dog up until the bell for round one rings then he’ll attack like a rabid animal.

Lopes will look like he is on vacation prior to this fight for he is stoic and calm at all times. He will arrive a focused warrior who will hold youth, height and reach advantages over his front running foe.

Lopes has actually been in the cage with a far superior set of adversary than has Silva and similar to some other ‘fighting nerd’ teammates recently, the feeling here is that Silva’s opening price of -250 (which is where he is priced currently) is giving the barking Brazilian well too much credit despite the string of success he has realized.

Yes, Silva may be the faster, quicker athlete in the cage but the inner drive and fortitude of Lopes, his diligence and his experience coupled with his size advantages force me to believe that the barking Brazilian Silva is going to be muzzled come Saturday night.

Lopes +210

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds -160 Over

Alex Hernandez -135 vs. Diego Ferriera +115 Lightweight (155lbs.)

The thirty-two-year-old Alex Hernandez just competed and dominated young Chase Hooper on the sixteenth of last month. Hernandez was an underdog going into that fight and he finished Hooper, who many thought would dominate the ‘great ape’ with his grappling and cardio.

Hernandez is a fighter who can be very inconsistent. Early in fights he shows quickness, strength, determination, power, and urgency however after the first round Hernandez often slows, his striking becomes more telegraphed, and his lack of cardio often exposes him to counterattack as he struggles to maintain his pace throughout fifteen minutes.

His opponent Diego Ferreira is now forty years old and has a depth of UFC experience. He is a third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu who has been in the cage with a highly pedigreed set of UFC adversary.

Ferreira arrives off a loss to wrestling savant Grant Dawson in January so he is the beneficiary of a full camp to prepare for this fight…he just discovered recently that it would be Hernandez on short notice off of his impressive win.

Ferreira has a couple inches of reach advantage in this matchup while Hernandez is the younger fighter as mentioned.

Once this fight begins I look for Ferreira to control the pace and utilize aggressive forward pressure to back Hernandez up and force him to work from his back foot.

Hernandez is best when he is moving forward and firing so he’ll attempt to meet Ferreira in the center of the cage for a throwdown which in my handicapping favors Ferriera not only for his power but also for his ability to weather an early storm and take this fight into the later rounds where his cardio (despite his age) will present him advantage as Hernandez begins to wilt.

There is recency bias affecting the line in this fight toward Hernandez as I handicap Ferreira to be the more experienced, stronger more developed and complete mixed martial artist.

Ferreira +115

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -125

Claudio Puelles -120 vs. Joaquim Silva +100 Lightweight (155lbs)

Puelles is a grappling specialist from Peru now training in Florida because he understands that his lack of wrestling ability and his inadequate striking must be complimentary to his fight arsenal as opposed to adversarial to it.

Puelles looks the part as he is going to be the taller, longer younger athlete in the cage, but he must grab ahold of his opponent and ground him in order to realize ANY success as he is lacking a well-rounded array of mixed martial arts ability.

Brazilian Silva is a short, compact, powerfully built, well rounded mixed martial artist. 2-2 in his last four fights, Silva’s two losses were against pedigreed fully equipped opponents who were able to test him everywhere.

Silva’s biggest advantage in this battle is his well rounded mixed martial arts base coupled with his depth of experience against pedigreed, ranked adversaries.

In this fight Puelles will pose a threat only in the clinch and on the matt for on the feet he’ll get carved up like a Christmas goose as Silva is decorated with a Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a Black Kurang in Muay Thai striking.

Finally, Puelles is solely a submission specialist and little more, Silva who has been a professional fighter for fourteen years…. has NEVER been submitted.

Silva +100

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -145

Friday Morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access that at GambLou.com.

Enjoy Noche and the hostilities surrounding that fight card!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Paris Imavov vs. Borralho: French Inhaler

The UFC is overseas for this week’s fight card as Paris, France will be the location for UFC FN Paris. This fight card begins at 9am PT with preliminary action followed by the main card which starts at Noon PT.

There are thirteen schedule bouts on this fight program. Seven of those matchups feature larger men weighing 170lbs. or more which usually means a greater opportunity for violence and finishes.

Five athletes from France populate the card as well there are another handful of fighters featured on this slate from European countries in close proximity to France, look for those athletes to be the beneficiaries of the local crowd.

Vilified on this fight card will be seven athletes strategically located (on the fight card) who travel in from the US/Brazil who face the local/regional talent. They’ll compete in the large 30-foot octagon with a full house of French fight fanatics looking to fuel hostilities!

Favorites this year in the UFC are running 65.7% which is eye wateringly high. Underdogs like Charles Johnson +180 last fight card are rare as eight/nine of twelve fights are ending with the chalk getting their hand raised thus far in 2025.

Reversion? I believe so, but we will need to undertake betting underdog fighters with diligence, scrutiny, and selectivity moving forward!

Let’s Fight!

Nassourdine Imavov +105 vs. Ciao Borralho -125 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Imavov, a Russian athlete training in Paris is currently ranked second in this ultra-competitive division.

After a one-sided loss to Sean Strickland in January of 2023, Imavov changed camps which resulted in him rebounding to win his last four fights against respected, ranked opponents. He bested former champion Israel Adesanya in impressive fashion in his latest victory.

Imavov is a solid grappler/wrestler by numbers as well, by attitude. He does his best work pressuring opponents then initiating grappling forays. His striking effectiveness is accumulative in effect though not flashy, and precision based.

While the hulking Imavov is not overly one punch powerful, he will utilize a combination of all his fight weaponry to overtake opponents in the cage though time and perseverance.

Imavov’s strengths are his well-balanced fight arsenal, his durability/toughness and in this battle he’ll have the crowd in his corner jeering at his Brazilian nerd opponent.

The Imavov blueprint in fights is to wrest opponents to the mat for a roll and while his grappling is complete, it can and has been depleting to his cardio which in this fight is foundational.

Imavov’s high early output has affected his energy late in fights which is something he will absolutely need to address in this scheduled five round war against the seventh ranked athlete in the division.

Brazilian warrior Ciao Borralho enters this showdown with confidence surging. His team, the ‘Fighting Nerds’ have taken the UFC by storm and Borralho, its leader arrives with a black belt Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a black belt in Muay Thai striking as well a brown belt in Judo which together help explain his quick ascension into the division’s elite. Borralho’s combination of fight weaponry, mental toughness and forward pressing aggression make him a threat to any athlete in this division despite his relatively short compact body type.

Once this fight begins it will be Imavov, in my judgment, who will attempt to fend off the pressure of Borralho with his footwork and striking in essence maintaining distance between the two in order to try to use his height and reach advantages to their full potential.

Imavov, while gifted on the ground would be foolish in my estimation to try to force the fight there simply because I handicap Borralho to hold substantial advantage in the clinch, against the fence and particularly on the floor.

On the feet it’s my judgment that Borralho forces this fight and attacks Imavov immediately in order to test the Russian’s will, his cardio but most especially his willingness to eat a ‘Sunday shot’ for Borralho has accused Imavov of not wanting to get touched on the teeth.

Both men hold similar positive strike differentials and on paper the grappling does look to be close in ability despite the fact that in application, Borralho will hold GREAT advantage on the ground.

This fight may well be a showcase for Borralho for his outward aggression, his forceful forward pressure, and the power of his strikes together with the completeness of his grappling will make this a truly intriguing matchup but one where I must lean to Borralho who opened +135 in this matchup.

Borralho -125

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -195

Mauricio Ruffy -185 vs. Benoit Saint-Denis +160 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main

Thirteenth ranked BSD hit the organization with fury! Prior to fighting he was a member of the 1st Marine Infantry Paratroopers Regiment; a unit of the French Army Special Forces Command which means he is a national hero in France.

BSD hit the UFC with vigor, after a short notice loss in 2021 he rattled off five straight wins in the organization before biting off a little more than he could chew in fights against Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano.

His last effort showed the BSD resilience as he returned for UFC 315 and finished journeyman fighter Kyle Prepolec in the second round.

BSD, a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a black belt in Judo has flash, power, and durability. Quickness, deft footwork, and precision striking are traits he is yet developing. This fight, in France and against a formidable Brazilian opponent who is also on the ascent may present fight fans with as interesting a matchup as we have seen in the UFC in months!

In Maricio Ruffy we get yet another teammate of the ‘Fighting nerds.’

Ruffy has none of the official BJJ, Muay Thai or Judo decorations of others on this fight card but what he does have is supreme confidence, deft footwork, acute quickness, speed, precision striking/kicking aptitude and he is ultra-aggressive.

Ruffy looks to shut opponents down as opposed to earn victory via the attrition of decision fighting.

These two men are quite similar physically, but Ruffy does possess a couple inch reach advantage with arms and legs which will help the Brazilian fight effectively from the distance he works so diligently to establish.

For BSD, he’ll need to navigate himself inside the spatial gap that Ruffy will work to create. BSD will be like a ‘fence ready for painting’ if he is unable to effectively penetrate the distance maintenance that Ruffy will work so hard to establish and control.

From the inside BSD will be able to both work his grappling while simultaneously negating the distance Ruffy needs to unleash those spinning wheel kicks and knees, elbows, and jabs.

Saint-Denis, still developing in his UFC acumen, has shown himself to be a formidable opponent for fighters outside the top ten of this division, however results inside the top ten display that his skills and experience leave him a bit lacking as BSD is still a developing mixed martial artist.

Ruffy is an established, ascending fighter who looks well matched in this battle while BSD will need to call upon all of his mettle, experience, and former military fortitude in order to effectively compete against this flamboyant lightning fast, destructive monster of a lightweight talent.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -165

Mason Jones -135 vs. Bolaji Oli +115 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Oki is a slick, fast, striker who has earned a 2-1 tally thus far in the UFC. Though a touch inexperienced, Oki displays the athleticism and striking acumen that can cause less nimble athletes’ real duress.

In Mason Jones we get a Welch fighter who is in his second stint in the UFC after taking a little time away to develop his fight arsenal more completely and by that I mean he needed to develop a stronger wrestling base.

Mason may not be the athlete his opponent is, but he is more experienced at this level than his opponent as well he has been in the throes of competition against more formidable adversaries than has Oki.

The styles make fights matchup of the day is this battle. Will Oki be able to maintain distance and avoid the detonation striking of Jones? Or will Jones’ forward pressing aggression and striking bluntness eventually wear Oki down and into unconsciousness?

Jones -135

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -155

Remember fight fans this card kicks off at 9am PST Saturday. My final releases for this card will be posted on GambLou.com Friday AM, tap the ‘Bout Business tab to access the information.

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading