After a stunning UFC 328, the Meta APEX hosts this week’s LV 117, an event populated with thirteen bouts and featuring a highly international set of athletes.
Sixteen Foreign fighters from thirteen varying counties arrive to compete in the smaller APEX octagon in front of a diminutive gathering of fans.
There are only a couple of slight age differences in these matchups as well there exist only four battles with combatants weighing 170lbs. or above so this fight card may feature fighters with a bit more skill than power.
Last week this column went 1-1 for a half unit win….we march on this week with the understanding that next week the UFC takes a break before traveling to Macao for the Yadong vs. Figueiredo fight slate.
Arnold Allen -160 vs. Melquizael Costa +140 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event
Twelfth ranked Costa trains at world famous ‘Chute Boxe’ fight club in Brazil. A brown belt in BJJ with a black belt in Muay Thai, Costa brings a combination of physical size, mixed martial arts expertise, and tremendous momentum into this bout.
Costa bumbled to a 1-2 UFC tally before winning his last six fights and against a set of UFC adversary that was stepped up for each new battle.
Costa is a southpaw with a diversity of attack, an aggressive nature and finishing ability as four of his seven victories in the UFC have come via finish including his last which was an impressive TKO over Dan Ige, a man who had never been finished prior.
Costa, twenty-nine is in the prime of his career and he is rolling into this fight with tremendous belief and swagger.
In the opposing corner of the octagon stands seventh ranked featherweight Arnold Allen.
Allen, an Englishman now training at Tristar gym in Montreal is an equipped wrestling talent with sound striking skill won his first nine bouts in the UFC however, in his last four he is 1-3.
A closer look at those last four Allen fights shows that his losses were all competitively fought and against elite top five ranked athletes in the division Holloway, Silva, and Evloev.
This fight opened a dead pick-em but by yesterday (Monday 5-11) the widespread price on Allen stood -190, today his price is -165.
We may be seeing public money (via the recency bias attached to Costa) arrive for the Brazilian as he has been dynamic lately while Allen’s results against the absolute elite in this division may be offering us a discount on the more experienced athlete/fighter.
Allen’s wrestling, his base form of fighting will expose Costa’s BJJ but how these two fair on the feet should be worthy of watching. It’s my take that Costa will attempt to use his height/reach in a stand up affair while Allen will want to tackle the Brazilian and gain top control in order to hold dominance in this fight.
Allen -160 is a buy now however those who choose to monitor this line closely may be able to gain a few extra cents on the Allen price by waiting and monitoring which is exactly what I will do so grab Allen -165 or better and good luck!
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -150
Strong lean Over
Khaos Williams -130 vs. Nicolay Veretennikov +110 Welterweight (170lbs.)
Khaos Williams is 2-2 in his last four bouts, he’s lost his last two fights and now looks to try to bounce back after a disappointing defeat to ultra short notice replacement athlete Andreas Gustaffson in June of last year.
Williams packs great power in his strikes/kicks, but his strike defense has earned him a negative significant strike advantage of .45 significant strikes per minute of fight time. Williams is a furious paced fighter who hurls hammers but unfortunately accepts incoming fire also.
A blue belt in BJJ, Williams holds very little wrestling acumen as evidenced by his zero percent take down statistic and his 51% take down defense. I might add that in his last several fights Williams has not had to compete against anyone known to hold heavy or even moderate wrestling ability so 51% is very concerning.
In to fight Williams is Russian vice grip wrestler/striker Veretennikov fighting out of Kings MMA in California, so travel is not a factor for the Russian in this fight.
Veretennikov is going to be giving away slight reach to the power striking Williams, but he is the taller fighter, he is older by four years as well he arrives off and impressive win over journeyman fighter Nico Price.
Veritennikov sports a negative significant strike differential per minute also while throwing less volume than his adversary Williams, so we have a couple fighters who attack but also receive!
Wrestling may well be the difference in this fight as Williams struggles when fights hit the floor especially if he is underneath and Veretennikov shows up to this battle equipped with that formidable Russian wrestling/sambo base, solid striking ability, and great durability.
Should Williams be able to manipulate this fight into a standing affair then it is my judgement that the fight will be ultra close however, Veretennikov’s wrestling, his forceful, forward pressure and take down dominance, all highly underrated, will be of central importance in keeping him in control of this bout.
Both of these men need a win desperately and both are on the cusp of the organization so we will witness two motivated, focused, men compete to the depths of their souls utilizing every skill available to them to get their arm raised in victory.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -165
Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast (awarded as one of the top 25 MMA podcasts recently) drops across all podcast platforms and is available at GambLou.com
Thank you for reading and enjoy LV 117.