This week profit was derived from the UFC. In fact, the UFC is the sole sport where one is able to bet over the course of the whole fiscal year.

While most handicappers have their ‘seasons’ we chasing UFC profitability go from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31 or as you kids like to say, 24/7/365.

This past week I realized a 2-2 + .50u result WITH the Prado -115 winner being tied to Tom Aspinall +128 in next week’s event from the O2 arena in London, England.

To date ‘Bout Business Podcast:  58-53 +18.06u 16%ROI (+123)

This week I’m preparing two NFL teams per day for the upcoming NFL season beside the normal workload I undertake for the UFC. Success in both the NFL and the UFC as well all the sports I work comes from tireless due diligence.

I do my own work and I post my actual results. Few do either!

My NFL consulting is not for everyone in fact it is for the very few but if you have real ambitions of realizing bottom line profitability in the NFL then I would urge you to hit the ‘NFL Consulting’ tab at the top of this page.

Enjoy the week.

The ‘Bout Business Podcast is available! Hit the ‘UFC’ tab at the top of this webpage then go directly tot he link of the podcast.

 

 

Last week at UFC 290, favorites ran 7-6 pushing their rate of success this year to a ten year low of 61.1% after finishing last year at a ten year high of just over 67%. *

My release last week of Volkanovski ITD to Moreno was unsuccessful as Moreno lost a tight split decision to Alexandre Pantoja.

Profitability this year stands 11-10 +2.15

This week we march towards the third of five straight events for the UFC in July with this Fight Night event from their APEX Center before traveling overseas to London for next week’s production.

Holly Holm -155 vs. Mayra Bueno Silva +135 Women’s bantamweight (135lbs.) main even

The bantamweight division once owned and operated by former champion Amada Nunes is currently without a titleholder.

This Holm vs. Bueno Silva fight will go a long way in clarifying at least the winner of this bout’s claim as being a legitimately regarded a top three talent in the division.

Bueno Silva’s ranked tenth in the division and arrives here after winning three straight fights against just better than nominal talent after she was defeated four fights back by number two ranked Marian Fiorot in a 125lb. flyweight fight.

Bueno Silva, a purple belt in BJJ is well more effective and efficient an athlete at 135lbs. because she now possesses the energy to fight ferociously for fifteen minutes but she’s in against an athlete in Holm that’s competed at 145lbs. prior so Bueno Silva will have to overcome some Holm size in this tussle.

When on her game Bueno Silva’s an aggressive forward pressing fighter who will look to engage Holm first, then do the difficult by trying to press her backwards and into the fence then attempt to transport her to the floor for a flogging.

In this bout Bueno Silva will be giving up a couple of inches of height and reach to Holly though it’s Bueno Silva who will be the younger athlete by a decade.

Holly Holm, ‘the preacher’s daughter’ is a grizzled veteran of the UFC. Versed as a blue belt in BJJ she’s also fluent in kickboxing and boxing. 8-6 in the UFC with a championship title victory over one Ronda Rousey some years ago are just a few of the highlights from Holm’s decorated career.

Once the bell rings for the start of this bout I’ll look to see how long it takes Buena Silva to penetrate the distance/spacing control of Holm for Holm wants to utilize movement to create the distance, space she requires in order to piece-up the incoming aggressor.

Bueno Silva on the other hand needs to make this fight an elbow to eyebrow brawl. She needs to immediately engage Holm, bully her and turn this into a grimy, ugly, clasping maul.

Engaged, pressed into the cage or rolling on the mat are where Bueno Silva must take this bout. By all means she needs to avoid allowing this competition to become a stand-up kickboxing match for she’s poorly equipped to compete with the more experienced, cagey, refined kickboxer Holly Holm there.

This is a substantial step up for Bueno Silva but one I believe she may be ready for.

While Holly Holm must be regarded as an elite threat in the division and a rightful favorite in this fight, she is now forty-one and just as unable to deal with Bueno Silva’s grappling should this fight hit the floor as Bueno Silva is competing at range against Holm.

Which athlete will force their fight upon the other?

Holm opened -175. She is now -165

Total in this bout 4.5 over -195

Despite this being in the smaller 25’ cage at the APEX, these 135ers will have plenty of room to maneuver so cage size does not apply to this bout as much as it does for the larger bodied athletes.

Nazim Sadykov -150 vs. Terrance McKinney +125 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Sadykov arrives from the white-hot Longo and Weidman MMA camp in New York so we know this kid has a solid work ethic, can wrestle/grapple, is fit to fight for ten rounds and is tough as the rest of those assassins in that gym.

In McKinney we get a fighter who will have more UFC experience in this spot, he’ll be the younger man who utilizes a switch stance and has a four-inch reach advantage.

Sadykov will look to clasp and fight McKinney up tight and in close and McKinney must use his experience, his athleticism and he must also use form fight IQ because if McKinney is not prepared to fight for a full fifteen against this frantic beast he’ll be submitted.

If McKinney can effectively pace himself and keep the less savvy fighter on the outside of his strikes, he could get the young man from Azerbaijan frustrated and then this fight swings to McKinney’s favor as the minutes wear on.

However, Sadykov’s single point of focus will be to force McKinney backwards and keep him defending takedowns as this will force McKinney into expending energy early so Sadykov can take manage control of this fight late.

McKinney’s wrestling chops seem to be getting overlooked in this matchup a bit. McKinney’s wrestling is on par with Sadykov’s. I believe McKinney’s cage experience as well the fact he’s bouncing off a poor performance in his last fight have him matched favorably in this bout.

McKinney opened -145 in this bout and now he’s +115. I believe the market has this one incorrect.

McKinney +125*

*This is a buy now

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Under -185

McKinney ITD numbers will be released later this week and I do have some interest there.

GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day. Get it anywhere you get your podcasts.

Thanks for reading and enjoy the fights.

*I’ve been tracking UFC results for just over a decade now.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Tonight, we have game 4 of the Stars and Knights. Las Vegas has systematically disassembled the Dallas Stars, Jamie Benn’s hit on Golden Knight Mark Stone coupled with the classlessness of the Dallas fans tossing debris onto the ice was horrifying. Those cowpokes in Texas ought to take a few lessons in manners.

Meanwhile their team is cooked and their season over…..after tonight that is.

Dallas opened -125 and without that bitch Benn, they’ll have to play a complete 60 minutes of hockey in order to have any chance at taking this back to Las Vegas.

Jake Oettinger may never recover from the complete meltdown he incurred throughout the duration of this series and for him I do feel poorly but for the hockey fans in Dallas I am tickled the Stars have been shot down.

On the business side, I have 3 units of Dallas Futures which will be debited from my balance as soon as they are sent packing. I also have a net +1.5 units coming from the Knights +1.5 games prop made earlier in the series resulting in a net loss of 1.5u.

That accounting will be made as soon as this series is over.

The opening for tonight’s game was Stars -125 and what I make as over reaction to the loss of that butthead Benn translates into a little advantage for the home team who by the way bookmakers KNEW would be without the captain.

Stars -104

Either way the Stanley Cup Final begins Saturday, June 3 and I’ll be all over it.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

No doubt Florida looks and feels like the real deal but let me caution puckheads that we must be wary of time off, not necessarily in this series but between this one and the Cup final.

Too much rest sounds impossible, it actually sounds desirable, but an imbalance of rest mostly means loss of mojo, sluggish starts and heavy legs EARLY IN A SERIES.

At least if the Panthers are going to win the Wales quickly then they could be in fortunate position because the Knights may acquiesce and do the same against a Dallas team that lost its composure and Campbell Cup with Benn’s bush league cross-check attack on Mark Stone in that last game.

At the end of the day, an equal amount of rest for both teams is desired but not more than 3-4 days unless we want the quality of the hockey to suffer a bit out the gate.

As it is Florida will come a slight underdog in the Final series should they and the Knights meet.

Puck Profitability 2023: 46-36 +21.54 33% ROI

Tonight: We’ve had success with the under in this series but all good thing come to an eventual end.

In Game 1, the total closed 5.5 -130 Over and the game went under the total, Game 2 the total was 5.5 -125 Over and the game went Under, in the last game, Game 3, the total was 5.5 -110 and the result was again an easy Under.

For game 4 the ‘Makers did their part and hung an opening 5.5 Pick-em and the hoards have flocked in to bet the under to current pricing: 5.5 Under -130/-135.

Tonight’s positions: Prop parlay: Series total games, how about a bomb!

Carolina/Florida 6 games +550 to Dallas/Las Vegas 5 games +220; 20/1  .3u

Straight wager:

Carolina/Florida Over 5.5 +115 1u

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming