The City of Brotherly ‘Shove,’ Philadelphia, PA. hosts this week’s UFC 330.
The fight slate is populated with twelve bouts which shall be held in a large thirty foot octagon in front of a frantic Philly fan base. The card features only a couple of area athletes, which is relatively unusual.
There is one Philly fighter facing an athlete that must travel into the states to compete (Wells vs. Oralbai) and one bout where a Pennsylvanian athlete (Dustin Stolzfus) faces a fighter from Maryland in Mansur Abdul-Malik.
We will witness six domestic athletes facing fighters that must travel into the country to compete and eight of the scheduled twelve fights feature athletes weighing 170lbs. and above.
Higher weigh classes deliver finish rates so we can see that the organization is looking to deliver fantastic finishes. Five of the eight fights at those higher weights are lined with a total of 1.5Rds proving the potential for exciting finishes.
Last week Amada Lemos did in fact ‘fight for our money’ as she put out a great effort. Unfortunately, it was not good enough to get her hand raised.
We move forward into this card looking to get back onto the winning track!
Islam Makhachev -330 vs. Ian Machado Garry +285 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title
Ian Garry is an Irish copycat of Conor McGregor only without the finishing ability and charisma of the former UFC legend.
Garry does possess a black belt in Judo to compliment his deft fluid footwork and his always running mouth. While Garry’s power does not intimidate anyone in the division, his speed, fluidity of movement, defensive dominance and pitter patter volume striking allow him to shuck and jive his way though most dangerous fights and even into this one.
Garry is a decision machine when he has things going his way as proven by the fact that his last six bouts, all victories have each been decided by decision.
Garry’s mouth is well more poignant than is his fighting but there is a clear path of victory here for the Irish blowhard…..the pitter/patter shuck and jive decision win.
Garry’s athleticism and ability to use his feet as well as anyone in the UFC will be the tools he must rely upon to have any chance to win this fight for he MUST not allow his vice grip Russian opponent to clasp onto him. Garry in anything but freeform space is in real trouble in this matchup.
Islam Makhachev may be one of the most dominant mixed martial artists in the history of the UFC and with a victory here solidifies his claim to be one of the most accomplished UFC athletes of all time.
Makhachev will be the slighter man in the cage Saturday as Garry will be five inches the taller man, he’ll hold a five inch reach advantage in this fight, and he is eight years the younger man.
If Garry can float like a butterfly and pop like a pansy for twenty five minutes, maintain a safe distance from this Russian vice grip and force this fight into the late rounds he absolutely has a chance to win this fight.
For Champion Makhachev this fight simply revolves around how long it takes him to cut the cage, clasp onto the brash Irishman, drag him to the canvas then control him from top position on his way to greasing Garry into the mat.
Garry will be the flashy faster rabbit early in this battle and Makhachev will be the tortoise force pursuing the speedster in meticulous, calculated fashion.
In order to win a championship, a fight needs to be won and eventually Garry be forced to try to engage in his kicking/striking if he wants to win this fight.
It’s then when Makhachev will capitalize on that mistake in tactic and shoot to clasp onto the Irishman, ground him, then mark him up with punches, elbows and ground and pound.
Makhachev opened -300 in this title fight and is currently -340 at Circa.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -180
MacKenzie Dern -220 vs. Jillian Robertson +190 Woman’s Strawweight (115lbs.)
Robertson is a Canadian athlete who enters this fight after defeating her last five opponents, three via submission which as a black belt in BJJ she is apt at, and two via TKO as she is decent throwing hands also.
Robertson’s level of competition faced however is not elite and with this step up in mixed martial arts class she will get a taste of fighting someone with world class BJJ skill.
MacKenzie Dern is the daughter of Wellington Dias a multiple time BJJ champion in Brazil. Since diapers Dern’s been competing and winning BJJ world tiles.
Once in the UFC she needed to incorporate striking and strike defense into her weaponry and while she’s still in development there, her grappling and submission game are on a level all their own in the whole of women’s MMA.
When this fight begins it will be Dern who will control the striking and eventually the ground for while both ladies believe they can excel there, the fact is that Robertson is giving away too much skill across the board in this fight. I believe this is a very advantageous spot for MacKenzie Dern.
Dern -220
Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -220
Lean Over
Friday my final releases will be available on the ‘Bout Business Podcast. Catch it wherever podcasts are offered or on my webpage, GambLou.com.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.