After a tremendous show of National unity and mixed martial arts competition we return to the modest Meta APEX facility in las Vegas for this week’s fight card.
Twelve fights populate this slate with talent that ranges from debuting journeymen to talented flyweights in a title eliminator.
APEX productions mean smaller bodies waging war as evidenced by the fact that only two of the twelve take place at welterweight (170lbs.) and above. Also only three of these bouts are lines with the favorite under a -200 chalk.
Last week this column dropped 1 unit with my Stevie Garcia straight wager, but the win/win parlay scenario discussed on VSiN by the Books, as well on several VSiN shows last week won and netted 1.70u.
Manuel Kape -155 vs. Kyoji Horiguchi +135 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event
This fight is a rematch of a 2017 fight won by the then more mature 26 year old Horiguchi who submitted the twenty-three year old neophyte striker in the third round.
Then Kape was young, green, and learning while Horiguchi was three years older but evolutions ahead of Kape when it came to MMA intelligence, weaponry, and tactic.
Now the tables turn and Horiguchi a decorated A-Class Shootist with a 2nd degree black belt in Shotokan Karate returns to take on this old rival as a rejuvenated thirty five year old.
Horiguchi, fifth ranked in the division held great experience advantage in that first fight, now Kape, thirty-two and in his prime fighting years will own the advantages.
Youth, speed, power, athleticism, and arm length all provide the division’s number two ranked Kape edges against the Japanese fighter while in this rematch he gives away nothing in level of adversary faced or UFC experience.
This will be a competitive fight for a couple of rounds until the unorthodox striking acumen and freakish athleticism of Kape begins to expose the proud Japanese warrior who I believe will struggle to close the distance on a fighter in Manuel Kape who is the divisions most dangerous fighter.
Kape -155
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -135
Christian Rodriguez -180 vs. Hyder Amil +155 Featherweight (145lbs.)
Unranked but talented featherweights scrap in this fine matchup of fighting styles.
CRod hit the UFC quickly realizing a 4-1 record out of the gate however once the organization stepped up his level of competition, CRod struggled going 1-3 in his last four bouts. Those fights were all against mid-level unranked opponents save for his last two fights both losses against talent ranked just outside the division’s top eight.
CRod is athletic, has great footwork and is equipped in boxing and wrestling but his power is non apparent, and he can seem to fade as his bouts transpire.
In Hyder Amil we have a pint sized power puncher.
Unusually, Amil will be the taller athlete in the cage Saturday, and he’ll immediately look to engage CRod and force him against the cage where the battering is best for Amil will not try to wrestle or grapple but he will try to injure and maim with his strikes and kicks.
CRod’s youth advantage is real in this fight for he is eight years the younger fighter in this one and will look t5o use his wrestling chops to gain the upper hand.
Amil returns off of some form of injury/malady that affected him in his last couple of fights, both losses to very competent UFC talent and he has vowed to make this fight look much different than his last two.
It’s my opinion that the pricing on this fight is based on CRod’s last couple of off performances and against what I regard as more stringent competition than Amil has faced.
That stated, Amil’s pressure, his power and his bounce post injury may be just the combination he needs to enter this fight and get his hand raised against a fighter in Rodriguez that will struggle to maintain equilibrium on the feet and will try to turn this into a wrestling match.
Amil is a points position. ‘Bout Business for all my final releases Friday.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -175
Vinicius Oliviera -285 vs. Andre Fili +235 Featherweight (145lbs.)
Fili is a decade’s long UFC talent who holds a 13-12-1 record in the organization.
At thirty five, many think Fili to be past his prime however based on the performance he put on in his last fight I would have to say that Fili’s talent and fight game is not waning and in fact I find him to be most dangerous in this spot.
He’ll be the more experienced fighter, as well one who is comfortable vying with fighters weighing up to 160lbs. come fight night as most featherweights do.
Fili’s experience, who he has been in against, and his well rounded fight arsenal are more than enough to protect a chin that has been compromised over the course of his duration the UFC.
In Brazil’s Oliviera we have a basic bully.
He’s wildly athletic but that does not translate to precision striking and dedication to plan rather he is explosive but wild and when challenged like in his last fight he can crumple under the pressure.
Oliviera is stepping up from 135lbs bantamweight into the larger featherweight division and despite the difference in physique and athleticism, this has the perfect making to be a great ‘welcome to the featherweight division’ greeting from Andre ‘Touchy’ Fili.
Fili +235
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Pick-em
Fili Decision for those looking for maximize opportunity. That line is not yet posted.
Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms. We’re white hot after a huge night last week at UFC Freedom 250 so give a listen!