Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Investment Intel, Profitability

Advantage investing or Action man?

Today’s theme revolves around the discipline to pull the trigger on a bet when the advantage is yours…. DO NOT acquiesce and let the ‘Makers or the talking heads being paid by them talk you into making NFL wagers in June when camps have not even begun yet.

It’s May and we’re entering the dog days of summer investors.

Sportsbooks have posted NFL win totals and week one numbers to entice those who are not disciplined and are itching for action to wager now on any aspect of the NFL.

My word of caution is this.

Betting NFL win totals now is suicide….especially if one invests in over wagers then you simply hate your money.

Is it possible to plinco your way into advantage now?

Sure, but you tie up your money, then run the risk that injury, trade or some other unforeseen act may disrupt the team you have wagered on.  

Betting now means you are hoping… not handicapping.

Due Diligence, Selectivity, Money Management…. The fulcrum of bottom line profit in sports wagering!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC LV106 Burns vs. Morales: Holy Moises!

This week the UFC returns to its APEX for LV 106, a fight card that is currently scheduled for twelve fights. Prelims begin at 1pm PT with the main card dropping 4pm PT.

There are only three fights with athletes weighing 170 lbs. or more on this event and while there is little name recognition for many fight fans, we will have athletes competing in this production arriving from Brazil (ten athletes) Ecuador, Scotland, Cuba, Nigeria, and Uzbekistan.

Both the main event and co main event are lined prohibitively in favor of the favorite but there are other battles on this card that I believe offer bettors opportunity.

Last week I dropped the Muhammad/Fiorot parlay losing 1unit. This year’s results stand: 10-13 -3.70u

Michael Morales -750 vs. Gilburt Burns +575 Welterweight (170lbs) main event.

Twelfth ranked welterweight Michael Morales is young, strong, explosive, versed in both wrestling and Judo and has fight ending power in his strikes/kicks.

Morales has soared up the welterweight rankings after decimating all five of his UFC adversaries to date, but this fight represents a certain step up in class of opponent.

Morales has not faced the level of competition that his opponent Gil Burns has, nor does he possess the depth of championship experience that Burns does but what Morales lacks in experience and championship savvy he makes up for with an explosive, violent fighting arsenal.

In Gil Burns we have a thirty-eight-year-old Brazilian warrior decorated handsomely with a third-degree black belt in BJJ and complimented with a depth of experience catch wrestling and striking compliments of Henri Hooft.

Burns was a world class lightweight athlete who struggled mightily with the weight cut to 155lbs.

Now, in his late thirties he is forced to compete against men much younger, larger, and more explosive than he all advantages challenging for a veteran trying desperately to keep his position withing the division.

Burns mixed martial arts pedigree, his depth of championship experience and the elite level of foes he has faced in his career make him a reasonable barometer for the less experienced but rapidly ascending talent in Morales.

The current price on Morales is a bit too extreme yet it must be understood that while the experience and pedigree land with Burns, the UFC has been allowing younger ascending fighters do their roster cutting for them.

I believe the Burns approach must be to smother Morales striking by rushing into him, grappling/pressing him, and then immediately trying to drag him to the ground where he is more dangerous.

At thirty-eight and after waging war in the UFC for some ten plus years against absolute elite fighters between two divisions, it is reasonable to think that Burns will have his hands full with this dangerous Ecuadorian athlete.

Morales for his part is going to try to maintain distance, remain measured and with premeditation, try to knock the block off Burns shoulders with an array of strikes/elbows/kicks as Morales understands that striking is his advantage and grappling with Gil could prove extremely dangerous.

This total is lined 3.5Rds under -120 currently.

I will look at the props once released for angles on this most obtusely lined main event.

Rodolfo Bellato -550 vs. Paul Craig +435 Light heavyweight (205lbs)

Bellato’s 1-0-1 in the UFC and arrives for his third UFC battle.

He is a chiseled and heavily muscled physical specimen who is armed with superior kicking/striking power.

Bellato’s strength/might must be respected early however, his last fight against Jimmy Crute showed that after a furious first six minutes or so, that Bellato’s tank can be depleted quickly.

Bellato’s offensive fury is evidenced in his 6.21 significant strikes landed per minute in UFC bouts. The issue however is that Bellato is offensive and has yet to refine a strike defense that allows a whopping 6.3 significant strikes against per minute of UFC competition!

In Paul Craig we have a world class Brazilian Jui-Jitsu practitioner from Scotland who owns a submission win over the current champion of the division Magomed Ankalaev.

Craig is also a large man however his body type falls more under ‘dadbod’ than sculpted or chiseled. His striking is inept for this level of mixed martial arts as it is his prowess in grappling/submission ability that has gotten Craig into the organization and onto this fight Saturday.

Fascinating about this co main three round war and the difference in fighter ability is that Bellato will own tremendous advantage over Craig while these men are standing. For Craig, should he be able to ground the Bear sized Brazilian he will not only hold advantage, but he will likely submit the hulking striker especially if the fight gets past round one.

Which man holds the advantage in this ‘styles make fights’ classic?

I lean to Craig.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -135

Mairon Santos -130 vs. Sodiq Yusuff +110 Featherweight (145lbs.)

On March 8th Santos was awarded a decision in a fight that he absolutely did not earn against Frances Marshall. We had Marchall in the points handicap thus winning that wager but the straight bet on Marshal as a decent dog was stolen from investors by the ineptitude of the judging that usually rears its grotesque head sometimes unexpectedly during each fight event.

Now the twenty-four-year-old Santos gets the quick turnaround to compete in the UFC for the third time this weekend.

Fighting out of Las Vegas, Santos, who is undefeated brings superior footwork, power striking and high volume to his opponents. Realizing a +1.81 significant striking advantage has served Santos well to date, however the forward pressure applied to him in that last fight from Marshall should provide Santos’ opponent with a simple plan for success in this fight. Forward pressure!

Yusuff is a grizzled UFC veteran of nine UFC battles. He has realized a 6-3 tally during that span and those three losses, they were against elite, top ranked fighters in the division in Arnold Allen, Edson Barboza and most recently Diego Lopes.

Those losses add a premium to Yusuff’s resume as I handicap it because those confrontations with the elite of the division are the foundation for refining one’s overall skills and development as a world class mixed martial artist.

Yusuff strikes using angles to enhance precision. He holds a positive significant strike differential over previous opponents of 1.25 significant strikes per round and the Yusuff strikes are power based. Yusuff is the busier striker between these two and he is the more powerful striker as well.

Yusuff, a blue belt in BJJ arrives off a loss to top ranked fighter Diego Lopes, to which there is no shame. He returns to the octagon focused and eager to jump into the top fifteen of the division with an impressive victory here.

Yusuff is the more complete fighter even though the twenty-four-year-old Santos will hold youth and speed/quickness advantages in this fight.

In summary, Yusuff’s experience, his well-rounded fight arsenal, and the fact that he’s competed against the elite of the division force me to dive on Yusuff as an underdog here like a fumble in the Superbowl!

Yusuff +110

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -250

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops with all my final releases for this fight card enclosed. Access it at GambLou.com.

Enjoy the fighting and thank you for reading!

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 315 Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena: Ring that Belal

The UFC heads to Montreal, Canada for this week’s UFC 315 Muhammad vs. Della Madelena. Early prelims kick off at 3:30pm PT with preliminary action at 5pm PT and the PPV portion of the event dropping at 7pm PT.

This fight card is scheduled for eleven bouts to be held in the larger 30’ octagon in front of an ‘Oh Canada’ crowd who come as prepared and as rowdy as any fight fans alive.

As usual, there has been some shuffling on a late injury as Joel Alvarez had to pull out of his lightweight fight with Benoit Saint Denis.

On short notice comes Kyle Prepolec a Canadian journeyman fighter who is willing to step in for a second opportunity in the UFC.

So, with Prepolec, now six Canadian athletes populate this card and there is but one fighter competing from the states, Charles Radke.

There are five ‘big ‘boi’ fights (men weighing 170lbs and above) scheduled, three of those fights are lined with a 1.5 Rds. total as would be expected from larger more powerful men.

Last week I dropped my release on Meisha Tate who looked game and was willing but was slow, lumbering and ineffective. I must improve.

Belal Muhammad -180 vs. Jack Della Maddalena +155 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title

JDM has an undefeated record in seven UFC bouts with wins against a strong set of diversely armed adversaries.

A black belt in BJJ with dogged determination, JDM is an aggressive forward pressing striker who makes up for any lack of quickness and wrestling ability with his toughness, durability, and hot, heavy hands.

In Muhammad we get a fighter most have an easy time overlooking for Belal is not overly large, he is not powerful, nor does he possess an abundance of footwork or fluidity of movement.

What Muhammad does possess is a world class wrestling pedigree and a deep seeded belief in his skills. He applies unrelenting forward wrestling pressure by relying on his unending cardio. Muhammad’s cardio and his wrestling form a championship team.

Muhammad is an athlete that does more with his mind than any fighter on the roster.

At the bell, JDM will attempt to force Muhammad into striking exchanges where he feels he has advantage. He will do all he can to maintain distance between he and the incoming wrestler for he must not allow Muhammad to clasp onto him.

Over time JDM’s plan will be to frustrate Muhammad with the striking and over time make him desperate to shoot on him and predictable with his takedown attempts.

Striking distance and an aggressive, incoming opponent are recipes for success for the Aussie slugger and Della Maddalena has shown a propensity to excel in those opportunities.

Muhammad for his part understands that a forceful, forward attack must be employed early to negate any space between he and the Aussie. He must employ his wrestling to negate JDM’s striking space as well sap the slugger of his energy by forcing him to defend.

Muhammad is unusually strong/determined and over time he gains momentum because of his cardio. Over the mid to late stages of a fight, Muhammad becomes more effective while opponents eventually grow weary of his constant unrelenting pressure. As it is said,’ “fatigue makes cowards of us all.”

So, on one side we have JDM who must maintain his striking distance by using constant movement in this fight. He will look to plaster the forward pressing wrestler with power knees, straight strikes, and uppercuts.

JDM’s ability to sidestep his charging adversary to maintain striking distance will determine his fate in this fight for Muhammad pressures early, he pressures hard, and he pressures incessantly.

While each fighter is accomplished in their own fighting specialty, the fact is that Muhammad’s striking is far more refined and developed than the wrestling/grappling of Della Maddalena.

The depth of wrestling acumen for Muhammad supplemented with his solid striking and iron clad will provides the physical/mental weaponry he requires to earn victory over a competent challenger in JDM who is still somewhat singularly equipped.

Muhammad -180

This line opened -175, was as high as -225 and is now compressing.

Total in this fight:4.5Rds Over -200

Valentina Schevchenko +120 vs. Manion Fiorot -140 Woman’s flyweight (125lbs.) title

Second ranked French fighter Manion Fiorot has earned this championship opportunity by winning her first seven straight UFC bouts against an impressive list of decorated and diverse adversaries.

Fiorot, thirty-five, sports unusual size for a flyweight. She has earned her last five victories via decision. However, one look at those opponents forces me to heap respect on Fiorot for she has defeated top six ranked flyweights on her way to this opportunity.

Current Champion Valentina Schevchenko, thirty-seven, has accolades in mixed martial arts that would fill a whole column by themselves.

She is the champion now a second time, she has defeated the who’s who in several women’s weight divisions and she finds herself in another title test this time against a larger, younger determined French opponent who happens to be less versed in mixed martial arts weaponry than is the champion.

It is Valentina’s diversity of attack as well her dynamic ability in wrestling, grappling, Muay Thai, Capoeira and Sambo that have her being mentioned as one of the greatest women fighters of all time.

Fiorot’s physical advantages, her height, reach, striking ability and youth together make her a true threat to the title as this fight comes down to whether Fiorot can force Shevchenko to compete all five rounds standing.

I must give Valentina respect for her world class fighting arsenal as well her deep championship history but at thirty-seven, with the wars she has been in, and now her propensity to fly private and dress in designer clothing forces me to side with the younger, stronger lady lion in this fight.

Fiorot opened -120 and has now been bet to -140.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -310

Muhammad -180/Fiorot -140 parlay 1u to earn 1.67u

Ion Cutelaba -115 vs. Modestas Bukauskas -105 light heavyweight (205lbs.)

Let us look at this light heavyweight battle between the Moldovan madman Ion Cutelaba who faces Lithuania’s Modesta Bukauskas in a regional, eastern European battle to be held in Montreal!

Lithuania sends in a tall, angular athlete who is dangerous on the feet and agile with his grappling while the shorter, more compact Moldovan hand grenade Cutelaba arrives a maniacal, offensive power striker with a forceful grappling base.

Cutelaba looks to ruin all in his wake through any fight with his blatantly aggressive striking attack. Cutelaba is all offense and little defense. However, his mad rushes to engage often leave him open for counterstrikes and takedowns.

The price on this fight has barely moved off the basic pick-em where it opened. Bukauskas is the more measured, better paced offensive threat and he is also the more well-rounded, defensive minded mixed martial artist here.

I believe if he can weather the madman from Moldova’s first five minutes then this fight turns in his favor.

Friday the ‘Bout business podcast drops around midday PT. Catch it only at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

All Circa pricing

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Profitability, Uncategorized

Kentucky Derby: Brutha Shue spew’s for Lou

My Brother Shue, a big brother/role model since 1977 University of Arizona days, returns again this year to offer GambLou.com Nag enthusiasts angles on the fastest two minutes in sports, The Kentucky Derby.

Here’s the breakdown Shue (in black ink) sent with his permission to share!

Hey bro – here’s my take, almost final unless one of my nags bail, here we go:

First, there have been two defections, the #4, RODRIGUEZ and the #10, GRANDE have been scratched and BAEZA #21 is in and he will be ridden by Flavian Prat.

The track and weather for Louisville looks to be sloppy, just as it was for the Kentucky Oaks.  We’ll need a hot pace in the Derby so in order for my closers to have a shot.

Attached are my final numbers for the Derby. (Shue included many charts which I did not publish in this column)

My opinion hasn’t changed since the PP draw – I’m still on #17 SANDMAN (6-1), but my fear with him, is that as he comes from almost dead last, and as he circles that final turn 8, 9 paths wide, he’ll be lugging in, as he likes to do, and perhaps get DQ’d a spot or two for interference.

#18 PUBLISHER (30-1) will effort to pass ten or so rivals to jet to the lead, and Steve Asmussen will win his first Kentucky Derby! (Shue’s met Steve Assmussen several times and is a big fan so take that with a grain o salt)

I also like #3 FINAL GAMBIT (30-1).  Not a fan of synthetic to dirt, but he has, apparently, taken to the dirt pretty well.  Although never really raced in ‘hot’ company before, just maybe sitting way back, he won’t be noticed and then Machado pushes the button on the final turn and off he goes.  He could surprise for sure.

#8 JOURNALISM (3-1) will be in my exotics.  You just cannot ignore his closing times.  My worry on him is that in his last three races he’s only been in company with four other runners.  And the Derby comes with mucho traffico!  He will stalk the leaders IMO and stay close, hoping to get a smooth trip.

I am also going to include  the #17, SOVERIGNTY.  He is also a deep closer who has an excellent shot to win.

I think the pace will be hot, as in 22 & change if not quicker.  I mean, there are literally 5 nags who like and need the front, the 1, 4, 5, 12 & 20, geez!  No walking the dog up front on Saturday IMO.

For me, I take a cautious approach to trifecta’s on derby day so I’ll use a $1.00 6 nag Tri box for $120.00

3-7-8-14-17-18

Unlikely yet fun…

Thanks Shue, I love ya man

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC FN Des Moines Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo: Nickal plated nine trigger

Des Moines, IA. hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo event. This slate has twelve scheduled bouts to be held in the large octagon in front of a crowd full of voracious Iowa fight fans.

Besides three regional/local fighters competing on this card, we will also be privileged enough to watch athletes shipping in from Norway, The Netherlands, Wales, and Vietnam to compete in the heartland so getcha popcorn ready!

Last week we earned two units to bring digital results to 10-11, -1.45u to date. Let us keep the momentum flowing into Des Moines!

Cory Sandhagen -455 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +365 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Figueiredo, after having left the flyweight division for the Bantamweight division, is ranked fifth after going 1-1 in two bouts against athletes in the division’s top fifteen.

Fighting professionally since 2012 Figueiredo sports a depth of UFC experience, an aggressive, power based striking acumen and a black belt in BJJ. He is well rounded, durable and with a victory here could elevate himself into title consideration and the stacked division’s top five.

In Sandhagen, however, Figgy has drawn one bad card.

Sandhagen is in his prime at thirty-three years of age and his four-year youth edge coupled with a two-inch reach and six-inch height advantage together provide him great striking benefits. Sandhagen, a man that trains in Denver’s elevation is himself a brown belt in BJJ so together, his size, his fight weaponry and his depth of UFC experience competing against this divisions top five together force me to regard Sandhagen as a legitimate favorite in this bout and a candidate for the next title shot should he defeat Figueiredo.

Sandhagen will rely upon his fluidity of movement, his length and guile to keep the incoming Brazilian slugger in space where the Sandhagen offensive fight arsenal is most effective.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over

Mason Jones -550 vs. Jeremy Stephens +425 Lightweight (155lbs)

Des Moines native Stephens comes back to the UFC to fight in his own back yard for a couple reasons. One, because he will help pack the gym with locals as well, he will do in this fight what he does in all his fights… and that is to provide forward pressing, offensive striking violence.

Stephens at thirty-eight still has the will, the fortitude and the aggression to compete in the world’s largest fighting organization but it’s his fight skills, his ability to withstand a flush fist to the face and his cardio that together make him susceptible to any true young ascending athlete.

In Jones, Stepehen’s gets such an ascending talent. Jones is tough as iron with a granite jaw, he has a well-rounded fight arsenal and packs profuse power in his hands.

On the floor for a roll or on the feet to force his adversary into retreat, Jones, who has been away from the organization to improve his skills (a scary thought) should absolutely pulverize Stephens in this fight.

I believe Jones’ approach will be to ground the midwestern mauler then reign ground and pound upon him in unrelenting fashion.

When the bell for round one rings you best be watching this fight because these men will each look to disintegrate the other.

Total in this fight:   1.5Rds Over -120

Meisha Tate -135 vs. Yana Santos +115 Woman’s Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Santos has had two fights since 2023 after having a child. She is 1-1 in those bouts. She enters this fight understanding that the Meisha Tate name can propel her into the divisions top fifteen with a win or find her free falling down the lady’s bantamweight rankings should she be defeated.

Santos has been the more active athlete though each of these ladies enters off considerable time off. For Tate however, her wrestling acumen coupled with her championship pedigree force me to regard the opening price on this fight of a pick-em as flawed.

Currently Tate stands -135 and it is my handicap that her aggressive wrestling and forward pressing attack will be enough to quell the journeyman-like skills possessed by Santos.

The total in this pillow fight is lined 2.5Rds over -400 so a decision seems more than likely here.

Tate via decision is a strong consideration here but props are not yet released so we will use…

Tate -135

1u to return .74u

Friday at midday PT my ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. We are off four straight winning weeks, so the time is now to jump in for investment advice.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC FN Kansas City Garry vs. Prates: Future Schlock?

After eleven straight fight slates the UFC took a break over the holiday weekend only to line another set of ten fight cards together for our future investment consideration.

This week it is Fight Night Kansas City, Garry vs. Prates, a card with fourteen scheduled bouts consisting of athletes ranging from flyweight women to light heavyweight men.

An international set of gladiators will compete in a large thirty foot octagon, and in front of a full house of midwestern fight fanatics. Only eleven of the combatants on this schedule are from the United States with athletes coming in from all corners of the globe. China Georgia, South Africa, Mexico, Jamaica, and Uganda are represented just to name a few.

One facet of this event most important to understand, is where the few local/regional fighters are situated on this card as they may have some effect on the crowd then of course potentially the judging.

UFC Kansas City prelims begin at 3pm PT with the main slate airing at 6pm PT.

Let’s fight!

Ian Garry -130 vs. Carlos Prates +110 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Thirteenth ranked Brazilian phenom Carlos Prates enters this fight with huge momentum and confidence brimming which is why he did not hesitate to take this substantial step up in competition after his original opponent Geoff Neal had to drop out of the fight.

Prates, a member of the gang of destruction that is Brazil’s ‘fighting nerds’ team is a world class Muay Thai striker who also holds a black belt in BJJ.

He is fearless, forward pressing, and ultra-aggressive. Prates has decimated all four of his UFC opponents faced, as well he has faced an improved, more refined adversary in each of those four bouts.

Prates attempts to walk down any opponent to plant feet and throw hammers. One thing he must improve, however, is his propensity to accept a strike as he accepts a slightly higher number of significant strikes per minute than he lands. Prates’ power is profuse, he has become reliant on tagging opponents and when he does, he shuts them down.

Irishman Garry who is now living in Brazil and training with the assassins at Chute Box is as close to a perfect opposite of Prates as we can find stylistically.

A black belt in Judo with improving grappling Garry is as highly athletic as he is brash and verbose. Garry’s strength in fights is to use his deft footwork, fluidity of movement and strike evasion to force opponents into lunging forward to engage, reaching and forcing engagement which has the result of leaving them wide open to Garry’s flash precision counter striking attack.

Garry’s been in with better competition, his experience coupled with his athleticism may simply be too refined and advanced for the forceful approach of this most dangerous pulverizer.

Prates carries momentum into the cage yet despite Garry taking this fight on short notice, I handicap his skills to be just a bit more refined, advanced, and developed for Prates especially understanding that this is a five-round battle.

Garry -125

Total in this fight 2.5 Rds. Over -180

Over -180

Michel Perreira -145 vs. Abus Magomedov +120 Middleweight (185lbs.)

The middleweight division of the UFC is a deep and competitive group where some twenty of its athletes may be legitimately regarded as top fifteen combatants.

Fourteenth ranked and rising up the ranks in furious fashion in Brazilian Michel Pereira. Periera has blossomed as a fighter once he accepted the fact that he was compromising himself too much trying to compete in the lower welterweight division.

Handicapping Pereira, the middleweight mandates that one must wonder how the massive middleweight makes this 185lb division let alone how he ever made the 170-pound limit.

A black belt in BJJ as well as Karate, Pereira prefers to attack opponents immediately and unleash his power through a barrage of fists, elbows, knees, jumps kicks and tricks.

Flamboyant is an understatement for how Pereira fights, and in fact his Wildman approach can sometimes put him in compromising positions. A subtly refined and focused Pereira is expected for this battle as he arrives off a loss to Fluffy Hernandez, one in which he was exposed in his ability to effectively compete for a full five rounds.

Pereira is sure to be looking to rebound off that humiliating last loss.

In Abus Magomedov we have a Russian fighter who will be slightly older than Pereira but two inches taller with a five-inch reach advantage. That height/reach advantage plays into his favor when this fight will be standing.

Magomedov’s striking to be honest is more workmanlike and less explosive in nature than is Pereira’s, but he delivers shots straight down the pipe and in classic boxing fashion as opposed to the wildly awkward angles that his maniacal adversary Pereira will hurl at him.

Once this fight enters the second round, we will witness one or both men begin to wane as neither is known for deep cardio ability so conditioning and pace stand to be an important aspect of this fight.

With a victory Pereira regains some momentum he lost to Hernandez in his last bout, but a Magomedov win catapults the Russian up into the middleweight rankings allowing him to threaten the top fifteen.

This is a very important fight in the division.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -165

Friday midday PT the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops just after weigh-ins are completed. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey, Investment Intel, Profitability

2025 Stanley Cup Tournament: The greatest tournament in Sport

The Stanley Cup Playoff Tournament, ‘Puck Passion Season’ begins Saturday April 19th.

Each NHL Playoff season I utilize specific data lifted from the set of all regular season games to provide the basis for my NHL Playoff releases.

This year I am highly motivated to derive profit from these playoffs as last year was the first in some twenty years that I did not derive profit from this most dynamic bracketed tournament.

Those wishing to see last year’s result need only tap the ‘NHL’ tab at the top of this webpage to view as well I have previous years data available for any interested parties…

I would love to forward 2023 results for that was a banner Puck Passion year.

The ‘NHL” tab at the top of this webpage is the key.

It navigates you to and through the registration process. Direct questions to Lou@GambLou.com.

I’ll be posting all Cup, Series and game to game wagers through this webpage so ensure you are signed up and have access by Saturday April 19th when my initial releases will be available (perhaps sooner).

Oh Canada!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC 314 Volkanovski vs. Lopes: lord ..have mercy

Miami, Fl is the host city for this week’s UFC 314 a PPV event.

This fight card from Miami is scheduled for 13 bouts of which three will be competed at 170 lbs. or above. The larger octagon is in use in Miami and the crowd will be festive, furious, and frenetic.

Early prelim action starts at 3pm PT with preliminary fights dropping at 5pm PT and the main card 7pm PT.

Last week I put up a stinker with both of my releases losing a total of 2.5u bringing this year’s digital results to 7-10 -3.45u

Time to dig in.

Alexander Volkanovski -125 vs. Diego Lopes +105 Featherweight Championship

Two years ago, Diego Lopes debuted in the UFC and took current featherweight Mosvar Evloev, currently the division’s fourth ranked fighter to a razor tight split decision loss …on a five-day notice! Many including myself, feel that Lopes actually won that fight.

Since that decision loss, Lopes has scorched all five featherweight adversaries leading into this championship opportunity and in each case the level of competition he faced in those opponents increased.

That will be no different this week.

Lopes, a BJJ blackbelt training in Mexico will be the younger man in this title fight by five plus years, he’s six inches the taller fighter and he’ll possess an inch of reach advantage over the former champion.

He employs an aggressive forward-pressing striking attack backed up with brilliant BJJ. Lopes is tough, durable yet and as importantly, he enters brimming with the confidence that comes from destroying his last five opponents. Now he competes for the belt he has always dreamed of capturing.

Alexander Volkanovski is the featherweight division’s most elite champion. However, at thirty-six years of age and coming off of two decisive knock-out losses, many believe that Volkanovski may be on the other side of his prime.

Those losses were to Ilya Topuria and Islam Makhachev, but those two assassins are the two top pound for pound athletes in the UFC currently.

I believe Volkanovski took the second Makhachev fight, the one in which he was finished in, too soon off the heels of the first Makhachev loss, the one in which he shined so brightly.

Then the warrior in him made the first mistake worse in rushing back to face Topuria, his second rush back to competition.

So now, Volkanovski enters this fight with over a year of rest which in this case seems a wise idea.

Once this fight begins, Volkanovski must be measured early when the young Lopes is his most fierce. Navigating the first ten minutes of this fight and forcing the younger less experienced Lopes to use mental and physical energy is foundational to Volkanovski success because in previous fights, Lopes has shown tired as fight extended.

Those that believe Volkanovski is able to execute the same plan against Lopes as he used against Max Holloway in three epic battles will have an easy time picturing how a Volkanovski win will appear, deft movement and combination striking/kicking.

Those that feel Volkanovski’s skills have waned from those past two losses will take the position that he will be unable to execute such a plan against Lopes at this age and after two substantial knockout setbacks.

The key to this confrontation comes down to Volkanovski’s ability to navigate this fight into the third round and perhaps beyond where Lopes has not yet been at this level of competition.

He’ll accomplish this by employing deft footwork with striking quickness/precision all while relying upon his deep championship pedigree.

Volkanovski’s depth of five round championship experience, his cardio, his complete fight arsenal and most especially his nimble footwork together with his depth of five round championship experience provide him advantage over anyone in the division but…he must have those legs.

Volkanovski opened -150 in this fight and is now -125. He was a buy at -150.

Volkanovski -125 or better

with advice to be patient and allow the flow on Lopes to continue, capture Volkanovski at his most advantageous price.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -210

Jean Silva -325 vs. Bryce Mitchell +265 Featherweight (145lbs)

Thirteenth ranked Mitchell is a country boy from Arkansas who has a sturdy wrestling base and is as strong as a country mule. Mitchell is best in fights when he can control the pace by pressing opponents backward then entangling them with his takedown ability and wrestling acumen.

As capable a wrestler as Mitchell is, that’s how uncomfortable and awkward he is as a striker. Though improving on the feet, Mitchell’s striking and strike evasion skills are the reason he sells out to wrestle. Look no further than his loss to Josh Emmett two fight back to realize that on the feet Mitchell is susceptible against any formidable striker.

Jean Silva is not only a capable striker, he may be the scariest fighter in the division currently. He is short, compact, lightning fast and packs obtuse power in his frenetic striking style.

Silva’s not lost since 2018, and he’s finished all four of his UFC opponents. That mentioned, this fight with Mitchell does represent a step up in class of opponent for Silva as well Silva’s not competed against a wrestler of this ability prior, so there is a path of destruction for Silva. That path would be to allow this fight to transition to the canvas.

Silva’s momentum, his youth and his shorter compact physique, which he can emply to keep the taller Mitchell from taking him down, coupled with the threat of his one strike finishing ability force me to regard him as extremely dangerous in this fight.

One last note, for many reasons, the UFC may not be Bryce Mitchell’s biggest fan. They sometimes have a way of cleaning house in their own manner. Mitchell getting this absolute killer, at this time, off that devastating loss to Emmett two fights back seems to be a perfect example of what the organization can do to someone who is ‘on the fringe’ of their graces.

Silva via demolition

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -175

Virna Jandiroba -145 vs. Yan Xiaonan +125 Women’s Strawweight (115lbs)

In this battle Jandiroba, the division’s third ranked fighter who is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a green/white prajied in Muay Thai striking steps up into the elite of the division.

Jandiroba’s won her last four fights against ‘top’ competition in the division but that competition has not been ‘elite.’ In this fight, she enters into the realm of elite competition against China’s Xiaonan who has recently competed for the title.

Yan was a fighter long, thin, and almost frail when she entered the UFC. However, the UFC Institute in China, Chinese strawweight champion Weili Zhang and Xiaonan’s desire to become a proud Chinese champion together provided the impetus for Xiaonan’s steady transformation, growth and improvement in mixed martial arts.

Xiaonan will have a certain striking advantage when these two are on their feet. She is younger, taller and the more seasoned fighter as well she is the much stronger lady. Xiaonan understands that to earn victory, she’ll need to keep this fight standing.

Her size/strength will be great assets to her as well her past with champion Zhang for while Jandiroba is a cobra when she gets opponents to the mat, her challenge is that her wrestling is not complete enough to be able to take down such a large, structured woman like Xiaonan.

Xiaonan’s power striking, championship experience and take down defense are all advantages in this fight against the Brazilian Jandiroba who is less experienced at this level of the division and is more singular in fighting dimension/expertise.

Jandiroba opened -140 in this fight.

Xiaonan +125

Total for this fight: 2.5Rds Over -180

Weigh ins from Miami are 6am PT so the ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop mid-morning PT this Friday at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC LV105 Emmett vs. Murphy: Murphy’s Jaw

The APEX in Las Vegas, NV hosts this week’s UFC LV105, an event that is the tenth of eleven fight productions in eleven weeks. The card features thirteen scheduled bouts populated with athletes from across the globe.

The APEX employs a smaller 25’ Octagon in a state-of-the-art facility for fights/fight productions but unfortunately allows for little attendance.

Favorites returned to dominance last week running 10-2 yet the rate of favorites on the year is 57.8%, well below the typical 62/63 percent average.

Last week Miguel Torres KO’d Drew Dober in the first round of their co main event battle pushing digital results this year to 7-8 -.95u.

Lerone Murphy -340 vs. Josh Emmett +280 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Emmett is the division’s eight ranked fighter, yet he is a substantial underdog to Lerone Murphy from England who is ranked tenth.

The Englishman travels to the States to face a fighter in Emmett that is extremely aggressive, packs profuse power and has competed against the elite in the division.

Emmett’s last fight versus Bryce Mitchell was spectacular. Emmett brutally KO’d Mitchell in round one of their fight in December of 2023. Utilize that fight as evidence of Emmett’s death touch.

Emmett though, is now forty and coming off a sixteen-month layoff after that Mitchell bout which in my judgement may be affecting how the market is viewing this fight. In my estimation, thatmuch time can help an older competitor or it may leave them looking old as with Jan Blachowicz a few weeks ago.

In Lerone Murphy we get a fighter who uses keen athleticism, deft footwork and precision striking to compliment his purple belt in BJJ. Muphy, who sports a positive 1.13 significant strike differential per round prefers to stand and pick opponents apart with volume striking laced with evasive defensive ability.

Once this fight begins, we’ll see two strikers compete against the other striker’s style. Will Emmett be able to earn the inside in order to unleash his devastating hooks, crosses, knees, and elbows onto his British adversary or will Murphy’s deft movement and ability to maintain space allow him to pepper Emmett as he forges his way forward to engage?

This will be fascinating in the clash of styles but in the end and despite Emmett’s age I believe his forward force, his profuse power and twenty-five minutes of fight time put him in a better position to upset than the current odds suggest.

Emmett +280 .5u

Patience as this number keeps rising

Total in this fight 4.5 Rds. Over -190

Joanderson Brito -210 vs. Pat Sabatini +185 Featherweight co main event

Two capable fighters sitting just outside the top fifteen compete in the co main event.

Sabatini, a black belt in BJJ as well in Tang Soo Do (a Korean adaptation of Karate) uses unrelenting forward pressure to back opponents against the fence then onto the floor where from top position Sabatini is quite dangerous.

Brazilian Brito enters this fight off of one terrible hometown decision loss to William Gomis last fall in Paris.

Brito is strong, athletic, powerful and a BJJ savant, he’ll be direct in his approach to trying to knock Sabatini’s head off, but he’ll need to protect himself against the takedown for kryptonite to world class BJJ is world class wrestling which is Sabatini forte.

The fortunate thing for Brito is that he’s deft at cutting the cage to close in on opponents so the smaller cage will allow him to close distance to engage in his power striking which is the heart and soul of the Brito physiology.

Once the bell rings for this bout it’s my position that Sabatini will have a difficult time closing the distance on Brito without eating some four once leather sandwiches….and too many flush Brito strikes will stop any featherweight.

Brito’s speed, footwork, aggression and finishing ability taken with the fact that he enters this fight off a terrible decision forces me to regard him as ready to perform at his utmost best.

Sabatini, who has a difficult ability to evade strikes and especially withstand flush shots to the face seems somewhat overmatched in this fight.

The Brito opening number was -400 and is now -205. I believe the opener is more depictive of how this fight will go down.

Brito -210

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -195

Torrez Finney -240 vs. Robert Valentin +200 Middleweight (185lbs)

This is the “Styles make Fights” Angleo Dundee tribute fight!

In one corner we’ll have a sawed off, short, squat, hand grenade of a wrestling talent in Torrez Finney who opened -300 in this fight.

In Robert Valentin Finney faces a long, tall, Swiss power striker/submission specialist that will be six inches taller and four years younger than he. Valentin opened a +250 dog in this fight despite the fact that he’s a pedigreed finisher.

The Torrez physique makes him look more like a framer than a fighter but make little mistake this guy is explosive, forceful, and equipped with a wrestlers cardio. His striking ability, however, is base, as is his strike defense but he overcomes that lack of fight diversity with incredible will and unrelenting wrestling pressure.

Finney’s approach will be to take the striker down then from top position reign damage until the referee stops the fight.

His opponent Valentin is chiseled, angular and will loom over the shorter, more compact Finney. Valentin must manage distance to leverage his strikes on Finney but by all means and by every cost he must keep this fight standing because if he drops to the floor with Finney he’ll be flogged.

Valentin’s strategy here will be to stick and move and try to time one of his devastating straight knees or uppercuts onto the incoming wrestler when he rushes in for the takedown.

Can the striker Valentin keep this fight standing or will Finney find a way to swarm the Swiss fighter, clasp onto him then drag him to the canvas for a smearing?

Total in this fight is 2.5Rds Over -195

Friday mid-day PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights

GambLou

It’s Business!